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Serie A

Athletico PR - Bragantino

08/15/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Bragantino
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
APBRA

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.52
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)

Bragantino

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Fernando  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Rodriguinho on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bragantino with Gustavo Neves: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Leozinho: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: Athletico PR has averaged 42% possession and 2.8 shots on target recently, playing a counter-oriented style
  • Form advantage: The home side carries immense confidence with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches
  • Home defensive strength: Athletico PR has conceded an average of just 0.43 goals per home match this season
Risk Factors
  • Squad missing pieces: Key players like Lucas Esquivel for the hosts, and Fernando and Rodriguinho for the visitors are not selected
  • Historical head-to-head: Bragantino has dominated recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in the last three encounters
Overview

Athletico PR (3rd place, 40 points) host Bragantino (8th place, 31 points) at the Arena de Baixada

Serie A match on August 15, 2026, 10:30 PM

A crucial battle in the upper half of the Serie A standings

The home side enters this match with the favorites tag

Form

Athletico PR Form: WWWDW - 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in the last 5 matches

Bragantino Form: WWDDL - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Athletico PR is in excellent form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches

Bragantino suffered a setback in their last match, losing 0-2 to Corinthians

Statistics

Athletico PR averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game this season

Bragantino averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per match

Athletico PR is extremely strong at home, conceding only 6 goals in 14 home games

Bragantino concedes an average of 1.38 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in recent history

Bragantino has won 2 matches, while Athletico PR has won 0

There was 1 draw between the two teams

The last meeting on February 25, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Kevin Viveros (Attacker) is in stellar form, scoring 14 goals this season with an average rating of 7.04

JoĂŁo Cruz (Midfielder) has provided 4 assists in his appearances so far

Leozinho (Attacker) shows a rising form trend with 3 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Santos (Athletico PR) made 21 appearances, keeping 5 clean sheets with a season rating of 6.86

Tiago Volpi (Bragantino) has a strong rating of 7.08 in 14 games and even scored a goal in his last five matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena de Baixada

The stadium has historically averaged 1.8 goals per match

The venue BTTS rate stands at 40% based on historical matches

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