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Serie A

Corinthians - Cruzeiro

08/16/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Corinthians
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Cruzeiro
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
CORCRU

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.71
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.37
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Yuri Alberto not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
André Luiz Santos Dias not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 96% available)

Cruzeiro

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Matheus Pereira on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Keny Arroyo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Gerson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Corinthians: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Corinthians with Gabriel Paulista: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro with Kaique Kenji: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

35%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Cruzeiro has to play without key contributors Matheus Pereira, Keny Arroyo, and Gerson, leaving them with only 76% of their usual attacking strength
  • Corinthians is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.3 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Cruzeiro's clear defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • A highly balanced historical head-to-head record with 2 draws in their last 5 encounters
  • Low statistical likelihood for a high-scoring game, with the calculated Over 2.5 probability at just 30%
Overview

Corinthians (9th place, 32 points) host Cruzeiro (6th place, 33 points)

Serie A match at the Arena Corinthians on August 16, 2026, 10:30 PM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Corinthians are unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of WWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently secured a 2-0 away win against Bragantino

Cruzeiro show a form of DWLWW, most recently winning 3-1 against Mirassol

Both teams won 3 of their last 5 matches

Statistics

Corinthians score an average of 1.09 goals and concede 0.91 goals per game

Cruzeiro score an average of 1.36 goals and concede 1.41 goals per game

Cruzeiro have a vulnerable away defense, conceding 2.12 goals per away match

Corinthians are defensively solid at home, conceding only 0.73 goals on average

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 1, Cruzeiro won 2, with 2 draws

The goal difference is 4:8 in favor of Cruzeiro

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 25, 2026

Key Players

Rodrigo Garro has 3 goals and 6 assists this season

Kaio CĂ©sar scored 2 goals in 10 appearances

Matheuzinho contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

For the visitors, Kaio Jorge is the biggest threat with 6 goals

Fagner has provided 4 assists so far

Jonathan Jesus impresses with an average rating of 7.11

Goalkeepers

Hugo Souza has played 20 matches and kept 10 clean sheets

OtĂĄvio Costa played 9 matches with 5 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on grass

The Arena Corinthians averages 2.4 goals per game this season

Corinthians benefit from home strength, conceding only 8 goals in 11 home matches

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