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Serie A

Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama

08/23/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Palmeiras
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Vasco da Gama
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PALVDG

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.57
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
Jhon Arias on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
RamĂłn Sosa not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Piquerez not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Murilo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap)
-0.14
José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Cauan Barros on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama with José Luis Rodríguez: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Palmeiras: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Palmeiras with Gustavo Gómez : 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Palmeiras: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

33%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Palmeiras averaged more goals recently with 2.5 compared to their season average of 1.9
  • Shooting accuracy: Palmeiras averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 44% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Away defense issues: Vasco da Gama concede 1.7 goals per away game on average
  • Last encounter: Vasco da Gama won the most recent direct duel 2-1
  • Missing offensive power: Jhon Arias (4 goals, 2 assists) and RamĂłn Sosa (4 goals, 2 assists) are not in Palmeiras' lineup
Overview

Palmeiras host Vasco da Gama at the Allianz Parque

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 8:00 PM

Clash between the league leaders and the second-to-last team

First-placed Palmeiras with 48 points meet nineteenth-placed Vasco da Gama with 22 points

Form

Palmeiras form: WLWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Vasco da Gama form: LLDDL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Palmeiras currently scores more frequently with 2.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.9

Vasco da Gama's goal production is stalling at 0.25 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras average 1.74 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded

Vasco da Gama average 1.05 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded

Palmeiras are solid at home with 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game

Vasco da Gama struggle away with 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

Palmeiras with 4 wins and Vasco da Gama with 1 win, with 0 draws

Goal ratio of 8 to 3 in favor of Palmeiras

Vasco da Gama won the last match 2-1 on March 12, 2026

Key Players

Andreas Pereira shines in midfield with 1 goal and 10 assists, averaging a 7.27 rating

José Manuel López has recorded 6 goals and 4 assists in attack, with a 7.07 rating

Mauricio shows strong form with 5 goals and 1 assist, averaging a 6.93 rating

Andrés Gómez has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists in attack, with a 6.93 rating

Cuiabano stabilizes the defense with 2 goals and 3 assists, averaging a 7.24 rating

Thiago Mendes contributes 3 goals and 1 assist in midfield, with a 7.20 rating

Goalkeepers

Carlos Miguel plays in goal for Palmeiras with a 7.01 rating and 9 clean sheets

LĂ©o Jardim guards the net for Vasco da Gama with a 6.68 rating and 2 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass

The historical stadium record at Allianz Parque averages 1.6 goals per game

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