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Serie A

Santos - Mirassol

08/23/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Mirassol
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SANMIR

Santos

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Christian Oliva on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Gabriel Bontempo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Mirassol

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Denilson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Edson Carioca  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos with Igor VinĂ­cius: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Mirassol: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Mirassol with Bruno Santos: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Offensive efficiency: Santos recently averaged 5.4 shots on target and currently scores more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
  • Home strength meets away weakness: Mirassol concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game and has not kept a single clean sheet on the road
  • Mathematical tendency: The model calculates a 46% probability for a home win and 75% for the double chance (home win or draw)
Risk Factors
  • Historical disadvantage: Santos has failed to win any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Mirassol
  • Severe away weakness: Mirassol concedes an average of 2.12 goals per game on the road
  • Defensive instability for Santos: The home team concedes an average of 1.59 goals per match and rarely keeps a clean sheet
Overview

Santos (14th place, 25 points) hosts Mirassol (17th place, 23 points) at EstĂĄdio Urbano Caldeira

Relegation battle in Serie A on August 23, 2026, 10:30 PM

Crucial match for survival between table neighbors

Form

Santos with form curve WLDLW in all competitions

Most recently a 3-0 win against Vasco da Gama

Mirassol with form curve WDWLL and currently on a two-game losing streak

Santos recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Mirassol also achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santos scores an average of 1.45 goals and concedes 1.59 goals per game

Both teams scored in 15 of 22 Santos matches, with 14 games over 2.5 goals

Mirassol averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded

Mirassol has a vulnerable away defense with an average of 2.12 goals conceded and 0 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in the database

Mirassol leads historically with 1 win to 0 wins for Santos, alongside 2 draws

Goal ratio stands at 3:6 in favor of Mirassol

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on March 11, 2026

Key Players

Gabriel Barbosa scored 8 goals this season and 4 times in the last 5 matches

Neymar contributed 6 goals and 2 assists in 10 appearances so far

Reinaldo recorded 1 goal and 4 assists in 19 appearances

Goalkeepers

Gabriel BrazĂŁo has 20 season appearances and kept 5 clean sheets

Walter also played 20 matches and achieved 1 clean sheet

Influences

Home advantage for Santos at EstĂĄdio Urbano Caldeira on natural grass

The venue averages a high 3.4 goals per match

Over 1.5 (100%), Over 2.5 (60%), and BTTS (60%) occurred frequently in recent home games

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