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Serie A

Botafogo - Athletico PR

08/24/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Athletico PR
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
BOTAP

Botafogo

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Danilo on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Arthur Cabral not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Lucas Villalba on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Athletico PR

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo with Kauan Toledo: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Athletico PR: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

33%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Form Trend: Athletico PR shows a positive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
  • Tactical Approach: Botafogo recently averaged 5.4 shots on target per match despite their scoring struggles
  • Balanced Predictions: The mathematical model estimates a very close matchup with a 36% away win probability and 31% for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Danilo, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Lucas Villalba are missing, leaving only 64% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Botafogo's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals per match compared to their 1.7 season average
  • Athletico PR show vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 1.62 goals per away match
Overview

Botafogo face Athletico PR at Estádio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on August 24, 2026, 11:00 PM

Botafogo sit in 11th place with 30 points

Athletico PR occupy 3rd place with 41 points

The visitors aim to secure their spot near the top of the table

Form

Botafogo show a form sequence of WDWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a loss against Vitória

Athletico PR are unbeaten in 5 games with a form of WWDWD

Their last game was a draw against Bragantino

Statistics

Botafogo score an average of 1.59 goals and concede 1.55

At home, Botafogo score 1.64 goals per game on average

Athletico PR score 1.35 goals and concede 0.87 on average

The visitors concede an average of 1.62 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches

The last encounter ended 1:4 with an away win

The overall record is even with 1 win for each team and 1 draw

Key Players

Alex Telles is in rising form with a 7.24 rating over the last matches

Álvaro Montoro has contributed 3 assists this season

Kevin Viveros leads the visitors with 14 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Batista starts in goal for the hosts

Santos is in goal for the visitors with a 7.09 average rating

Athletico PR have achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estádio Nilton Santos

Matches at this venue average 2.4 goals

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played here

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