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Serie A

Bragantino - Grêmio

08/23/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.6
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

0:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BRAGRÊ

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Fernando  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.79
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.05
Carlos Vinícius on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Cristian Pavón on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Juan Nardoni not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Gustavo Martins not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
56% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bragantino with Agustín Sant'Anna : 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Grêmio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Bragantino: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Grêmio with Pedro Gabriel: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Grêmio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

28%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Only 50% of the usual starting lineup strength available for Grêmio, with Carlos Vinícius, Cristian Pavón, Juan Nardoni, and Gustavo Martins missing
  • Bragantino averaged 14 shots total and 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 60%
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio concedes an average of 2.83 goals in away matches
  • Bragantino has recorded only one victory in their last five matches
Overview

Bragantino hosts Grêmio

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 8:00 PM

Bragantino is in 8th place with 32 points

Grêmio is in 15th place with 25 points

The home team is the favorite

Form

Bragantino form: WDDLD

Grêmio form: LLDWL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Bragantino has 1 win and 3 draws in the last 5 matches

Grêmio recorded 1 win and 3 losses recently

Statistics

Bragantino scores 1.23 goals and concedes 1.05 goals on average

Home record: 1.23 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded on average

Grêmio scores 1.09 goals and concedes 1.36 goals on average

Away from home, Grêmio concedes an average of 2.83 goals

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches recorded

2 wins for Bragantino and 3 draws

No wins for Grêmio

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Juninho Capixaba with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Lucas Barbosa has scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists

Rodriguinho with 2 goals and a rising form trend

Marlon has 1 goal and 1 assist with strong recent form

Wallace has 1 goal in 2 appearances

Erick Noriega scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in 16 matches

Goalkeepers

Tiago Volpi played 15 matches in goal and scored 2 goals

Weverton has 20 appearances and 1 assist this season

Bragantino achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Grêmio managed 5 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Bragantino benefits at home from conceding only 0.85 goals per game on average

Grêmio shows a clear defensive weakness in away games

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