Serie A
Cruzeiro - Flamengo
08/22/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
10%0:1
10%1:0
8%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
The Lab
- 1Cruzeiro: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Flamengo with Erick Pulgar: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Flamengo: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Cruzeiro with Fabrício Bruno: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 5Flamengo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
31%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Flamengo averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Flamengo is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.0)
- Not nominated for the match are Bruno Rodrigues for the hosts, as well as Léo Pereira and Jorginho for the visitors
Risk Factors
- Suspension of regular defender J. de Jesus Alves (15 season appearances, 7.11 rating)
- Limited data availability for duel stats in recent matches
Overview
Cruzeiro (5th place, 36 points) host Flamengo (2nd place, 45 points) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Serie A match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM
A top-tier clash with tight mathematical predictions
Form
Cruzeiro is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss from their last 5 matches (WLWWW)
Their last result was a 2-1 away win against Corinthians
Flamengo remains unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws (WDDWW)
Both teams show a positive recent trend in advanced stats
Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.39 goals and concedes 1.39 goals per game
At home, their defense is more stable, conceding only 1.0 goal per match
Flamengo shows extreme offensive strength, averaging 2.0 goals per game
Away from home, Flamengo is even more dangerous with an average of 2.08 goals scored
The visitors concede only 0.86 goals per match this season on average
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in recent years
Flamengo dominates the historical record with 3 wins, while Cruzeiro won 1 match
One match ended in a draw, with a goal difference of 3-6 against Cruzeiro
The last meeting on March 12, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Flamengo
Key Players
Matheus Pereira is a key midfielder with 5 goals and 2 assists
Kaio Jorge has already scored 6 goals this season
Fagner shines defensively with 4 assists this season
Pedro leads the attack with 14 goals and 4 assists
Samuel Lino has contributed 6 goals and 7 assists
Jorge Carrascal is in strong form with 1 goal and 3 assists in recent matches
Goalkeepers
Otávio Costa guards the net for Cruzeiro, playing in 10 matches this season
Cruzeiro has kept 5 clean sheets so far this season
Agustín Rossi is the first-choice goalkeeper for Flamengo with 22 appearances
Flamengo has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
The venue averages 2.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 historical matches at this stadium
Cruzeiro records more stable defensive stats at home, conceding only 1.0 goal per game