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Serie A

Chapecoense - São Paulo

08/23/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.0
Total xG
2.1
São Paulo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
CHASP

Chapecoense

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 13, 7 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Yannick Bolasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

São Paulo

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.26
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.05
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 20, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Marcos Antônio on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    São Paulo: 79% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Chapecoense with Yannick Bolasie: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Chapecoense: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    São Paulo with Luciano: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

34%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Balanced outlook: The model predicts almost equal win probabilities for both sides with 34% home win vs 32% away win
  • Tactical approach: São Paulo dominant in possession with an average of 59%, while Chapecoense played counter-oriented with 41% possession recently
  • Historical advantage: São Paulo won the only head-to-head encounter this season comfortably 2-0
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Chapecoense concede an average of 2.09 goals per match this season
  • Weak away defense: São Paulo concede an average of 1.89 goals in away games
  • Lack of efficiency: Both teams have failed to secure a single win in their last 5 competitive matches
Overview

Chapecoense host São Paulo at the Arena Condá

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 9:30 PM

Chapecoense sit in 20th place with 11 points

São Paulo are in 13th place with 27 points

A crucial clash in the lower half of the Serie A table

Form

Both teams share an identical form of LLDLD

Chapecoense recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses recently

São Paulo also registered 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Both sides come off a draw in their last match

Statistics

Chapecoense score an average of 1.05 goals and concede 2.09 goals per match

At home, Chapecoense concede an average of 1.8 goals

São Paulo score an average of 1.23 goals and concede 1.18 goals per match

Away from home, São Paulo concede an average of 1.89 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match in the dataset

São Paulo won the last meeting 2-0 on March 12, 2026

Chapecoense are still looking for their first point against this opponent

Key Players

Marcinho has scored 3 goals this season for his team

Giovanni Augusto leads the midfield with 1 goal and 3 assists

Jonathan Calleri is the top scorer for the visitors with 7 goals

Luciano has contributed 6 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Anderson played 8 games in goal for Chapecoense keeping 1 clean sheet

Rafael started 22 matches for São Paulo recording 4 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers aim to bring stability to their defenses

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena Condá

The Arena Condá has averaged 4.6 total goals per match in recent games

More than 1.5 goals were scored in 5 out of 5 matches at this venue

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