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Serie A

Vitória - Bahia

08/23/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Bahia
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VITBAH

Vitória

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Baralhas  not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Bahia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Ademir not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Renato Kayzer: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bahia with Zé Guilherme: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bahia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Bahia: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Home defense vs Away attack: Vitória's extremely strong home defense (0.44 goals conceded) faces Bahia's stable attack averaging 1.67 goals recently
  • Tactical styles: Vitória has recently been counter-oriented with 44.4% average possession, while Bahia averaged 53.8% possession
  • Mathematical balance: The model predicts an extremely tight match with a slight edge for Bahia at 37% away win compared to 34% home win
Risk Factors
  • Vitória's offensive slump with only 0.25 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.10
  • Bahia's heavy trend towards draws with 5 consecutive draw results
  • Away defensive vulnerability for Bahia, conceding an average of 1.55 goals per away game
Overview

Vitória host Bahia at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

Vitória in 12th place with 29 points against Bahia in 6th place with 34 points

A significant mid-table clash

Form

Vitória form: DLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Vitória recently won 1-0 at home against Botafogo

Bahia with five consecutive draws with the form DDDDD

Bahia's last match ended in a 3-3 away draw against Chapecoense

Statistics

Vitória averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game

At home, Vitória is strong defensively, conceding just 0.44 goals per game with 8 clean sheets in 16 home matches

Bahia scores 1.39 goals and concedes 1.22 goals on average

Away from home, Bahia concedes an average of 1.55 goals per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches overall

Bahia with 2 wins, Vitória with 1 win and 2 draws

The last direct duel ended 1-1 on March 11, 2026

Bahia is recently dominant with 2 wins in the last 5 encounters

Key Players

Erick (Attacker, 2 goals, 4 assists, rating 7.03)

Renê (Attacker, 5 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.96)

Matheuzinho (Midfielder, 3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.87)

Luciano Juba (Defender, 7 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.10)

David Duarte (Defender, 3 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.05)

Rodrigo Nestor (Midfielder, 1 goal, 2 assists, rating 7.04)

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo with a season average rating of 7.02 in 19 matches

Ronaldo with a season average rating of 7.10 in 14 matches

Vitória with 9 clean sheets this season, Bahia with 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

The venue averages 2.6 goals per game in recent history

Vitória's home defensive strength with only 7 goals conceded in 16 home matches is a key factor

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