Serie A
Coritiba - Corinthians
08/23/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.1
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
12%0:1
11%2:1
7%What influences the xG?
Coritiba
Corinthians
The Lab
- 1Corinthians with Matheus Bidu: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- 3Coritiba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Coritiba: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Corinthians: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
34%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Weakened visitors: Only 50% of the goal threat available, without Rodrigo Garro, Matheuzinho, Matheus Bidu
- Form curves comparison: Corinthians averaged more goals recently (1.8) than Coritiba (1.0)
- High-scoring history: EstĂĄdio Major AntĂŽnio Couto Pereira averaged 3.4 goals per game in recent matches
Risk Factors
- Low offensive pressure: Coritiba averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Completely open outcome: The mathematical model calculates nearly equal probabilities for a home win (34%), draw (34%), and away win (32%)
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview
Coritiba host Corinthians at EstĂĄdio Major AntĂŽnio Couto Pereira
Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 11:30 PM
Mid-table duel between 9th and 10th place
Only one point separates both teams in the standings
Form
Coritiba shows mixed form (LDLWD) with a negative trend
Only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last matches
Coritiba's goal production has stalled at 1.0 goals recently compared to a 1.3 season average
Corinthians (WDDWL) with a positive trend of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The visitors are scoring more frequently (1.8 average) than their season average of 1.3
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Coritiba scores an average of 1.22 goals and concedes 1.30 goals per game this season
In home games, their average stands at 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded
Corinthians scores 1.09 goals on average and concedes 0.96 goals per match
Away from home, the visitors have an even average of 1.09 goals scored and conceded
Both teams have had 11 matches this season in which both teams scored
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams
The last encounter ended in a 2:0 win for the home team
This match took place on March 12, 2026
There has been no draw in this matchup so far
Key Players
Breno Lopes leads the home team's attack with 8 goals and 2 assists
Josué contributes 1 goal and 9 assists in midfield with an average rating of 7.08
Pedro Rocha has scored 5 goals so far this season
For the visitors, Kaio CĂ©sar impresses with an average rating of 7.08 in 11 appearances
Breno Bidon has 2 goals and 1 assist in midfield from 21 matches
Gustavo Henrique strengthens the defense and holds an average rating of 7.00
Goalkeepers
Pedro Morisco has played 7 matches in goal for Coritiba this season, holding an average rating of 7.16
Coritiba managed to keep a clean sheet 6 times overall this season
KauĂȘ has guarded the goal 2 times for Corinthians so far, achieving a rating of 7.26
The visitors have already recorded 10 clean sheets during this campaign
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Major AntĂŽnio Couto Pereira
In the 5 home games played there, there has been a high-scoring average of 3.4 goals per game
Additionally, 80% of these home matches ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals