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Serie A

Internacional - Atlético Mineiro

08/22/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Atlético Mineiro
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
INTAM

Internacional

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap)
-0.11
Matheus Bahia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Atlético Mineiro

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Tomás Cuello on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Victor Hugo not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mateo Cassierra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Vitor Hugo  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Maycon  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Internacional with Gabriel Mercado: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlético Mineiro: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Atlético Mineiro with Natanael: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético Mineiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Tactical style: Internacional operated counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 41.2% possession and only 3.2 shots on target
  • Form contrast: While Internacional's scoring has stalled (0.8 goals recently), Atlético Mineiro is currently scoring more frequently (average 1.8) than their season average
  • H2H dominance: Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters against Internacional
Risk Factors
  • Missing personnel: Atlético Mineiro plays with reduced strength as key players like Tomás Cuello, Victor Hugo, Mateo Cassierra, Vitor Hugo, and Maycon are not available
  • Away defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.4 goals per match away from home
  • Home defensive stability: Internacional concedes only 1.00 goals per game on average at home this season
Overview

Internacional (16th place, 24 points) host Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 32 points) at Estadio Beira-Rio

Serie A match on August 22, 2026, 10:30 PM

Internacional fights near the relegation zone while the guests look to climb the table

Form

Internacional's form is LLDDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Atlético Mineiro shows a form of WDWDW with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses

Internacional's goal scoring has stalled recently at 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.1

Atlético Mineiro is currently scoring more frequently with 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4

Statistics

Internacional scores an average of 1.04 goals and concedes 1.22 goals per game this season

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 1.23 goals

Away from home, Atlético Mineiro concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 13 out of 23 matches for Internacional and in 10 out of 22 matches for the visitors

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Mineiro won 3 times, Internacional won once, with 1 draw

The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on March 11, 2026 ended in a 1-0 victory for Atlético Mineiro

Key Players

Johan Carbonero scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists this season with an average rating of 6.99

Alexandro Bernabei has 4 goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 7.17

Alan Patrick recorded 3 goals and an average rating of 7.15

Bernard contributed 2 goals, 3 assists, and an average rating of 6.80

Alan Minda registered 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.81

Renan Lodi has provided 3 assists with a rating of 7.00

Goalkeepers

Matheus Cunha has played 3 matches this season with an average rating of 6.84

Everson appeared in 22 matches and holds an average rating of 6.95

Influences

Internacional scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.00 goals at home

The last 5 matches at Estadio Beira-Rio averaged 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of these 5 home matches

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