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Serie A08/30/2026, 02:00 PM

Athletico PR – Fluminense3 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Athletico PR
1.23
Total xG
2.09
Fluminense
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAthletico PRFluminense
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)−0.48
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)−0.48
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)+0.14
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.01
HĂ©rcules not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Solid home defense: Athletico PR concede just 0.5 goals on average at home, whereas Fluminense suffer an average of 1.67 goals away
  • In-form attackers: Athletico PR score more frequently (2.0) than their season average, and Fluminense also improved to an average of 1.8 goals recently
  • Tactical control: Fluminense averaged a dominant 60% possession and a strong 6.4 shots on target in their past matches

Risks

  • Head-to-head record: Athletico PR remained winless in the last 3 direct matches against Fluminense, suffering 2 defeats
  • Restricted data on defensive duel statistics in the past 5 matches for both teams

All probabilities

Result
Athletico PR43%
Draw33%
Fluminense24%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw76%
Fluminense or draw57%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
3:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Fluminense: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  2. Fluminense: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Palmeiras: 2 goals (85', 90+2')

Lineups

Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1

Athletico PR
  • 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
  • 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
  • 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
  • 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
  • 29 G. BenavĂ­dez
  • 16 J. Alves dos Santos
  • 14 L. Dias
  • 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
  • 21 L. Caetano Silva
  • 8 J. Machado Cruz
  • 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Fluminense
  • 1 F. Lopes Maciel
  • 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
  • 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
  • 29 J. MillĂĄn DĂ­az
  • 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
  • 16 G. Santana
  • 8 M. Martinelli
  • 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
  • 10 P. Chagas de Lima
  • 30 Y. Soteldo MartĂ­nez
  • 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Substitutes
  • 18 K. CalderĂłn Vargas
  • 22 C. TerĂĄn DĂ­az
  • 10 B. Zapelli
  • 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
  • 1 M. Pontes Moreira
  • 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
  • 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
  • 5 A. Costa
  • 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
  • 2 G. Leite dos Santos
  • 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
  • 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
  • 3 T. da Silva
  • 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
  • 11 J. Savarino Quintero
  • 13 G. Arana Lopes
  • 46 J. Lima Fidelis
  • 19 R. Castillo
  • 32 L. Acosta
  • 28 R. Silva de Almeida
  • 27 M. de AraĂșjo Pitaluga Filho
  • 94 O. Passos Santos
  • 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
  • 14 G. Cano

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