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Serie A

Athletico PR - Fluminense

08/30/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Fluminense
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
APFLU

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.48
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Full strength squad available

Fluminense

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.48
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
HĂ©rcules not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Fluminense: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Palmeiras: 2 goals (85', 90+2')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Solid home defense: Athletico PR concede just 0.5 goals on average at home, whereas Fluminense suffer an average of 1.67 goals away
  • In-form attackers: Athletico PR score more frequently (2.0) than their season average, and Fluminense also improved to an average of 1.8 goals recently
  • Tactical control: Fluminense averaged a dominant 60% possession and a strong 6.4 shots on target in their past matches
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-head record: Athletico PR remained winless in the last 3 direct matches against Fluminense, suffering 2 defeats
  • Restricted data on defensive duel statistics in the past 5 matches for both teams
Overview

Athletico PR host Fluminense at the Arena de Baixada

Serie A clash on August 30, 2026, 4:00 PM

Athletico PR currently sit in 3rd place with 44 points

Fluminense occupy 4th place with 41 points

A crucial matchup in the upper region of the table

Form

Athletico PR show a form of WDWDW

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their recent outings

Fluminense present a form of DDDWW

The visitors secured 2 wins and 3 draws recently

Both sides remain undefeated in their past five matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Athletico PR score an average of 1.42 goals per match

At home, the hosts concede an average of only 0.5 goals

Fluminense score an average of 1.5 goals per match this season

The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 18 of Fluminense's 24 league matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 direct encounters recorded

Fluminense dominate the head-to-head with 2 wins

One match ended in a draw

Athletico PR have yet to win a duel against this opponent

The most recent meeting finished in a 2-3 victory for Fluminense

Key Players

Kevin Viveros leads the line with 16 goals and 3 assists in 23 matches

JoĂŁo Cruz contributes with 1 goal and 4 assists

Stiven Mendoza has recorded 5 goals this season

Hulk scored 3 goals in just 6 appearances for the away side

AgustĂ­n Canobbio registers 4 goals and 3 assists so far

IgnĂĄcio contributed 2 goals and 1 assist from defence

Goalkeepers

Santos has guarded the goal for Athletico PR in 23 matches

The hosts have recorded 8 clean sheets this season

FĂĄbio is the goalkeeper for Fluminense with 24 appearances

The visitors have kept 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

Home advantage plays a key role for Athletico PR at the Arena de Baixada

The hosts concede only 0.5 goals per game on home soil

Matches at this venue average 1.4 goals per game

The BTTS rate at this stadium stands at 40%

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