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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro

08/30/2026, 12:20 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Cruzeiro
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VDGCRU

Vasco da Gama

Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap)
-0.22
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.18
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.17
Cuiabano on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Cruzeiro

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Matheus Pereira on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Kaio Jorge  on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Keny Arroyo not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Fagner on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Romero on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Bruno Rodrigues not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 32% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Cruzeiro: 3.4 cards per game (39 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')

  • 4
    Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

  • 5
    Matheus Pereira: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Only 33% of the goal threat available for Cruzeiro, without Matheus Pereira, Kaio Jorge, Keny Arroyo, Fagner, Lucas Romero, Bruno Rodrigues and Lucas Villalba
  • Cruzeiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vasco da Gama's 3.4
  • Significant gap in form: Cruzeiro won four of their last five matches (LWWWW) while Vasco da Gama remains winless in five games (LDDLL)
Risk Factors
  • Cuiabano is missing, with only 69% of the goal threat available for Vasco da Gama
  • Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal scoring has stalled with an average of only 0.5 goals in recent matches compared to the season average of 1.1
Overview

Vasco da Gama hosts Cruzeiro at EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Serie A clash on August 30, 2026, 2:20 AM

Vasco da Gama in 19th place battles relegation while 5th-placed Cruzeiro targets the top spots

Form

Vasco da Gama is in a slump and winless in five matches with LDDLL form

Cruzeiro is in great shape with four wins in their last five games showing LWWWW form

Vasco da Gama recently suffered a 1-4 defeat to Palmeiras while Cruzeiro won 2-1 against Flamengo

Statistics

Vasco da Gama averages 1.04 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per match

Cruzeiro is more dangerous offensively with an average of 1.42 goals scored per game

Vasco da Gama concedes 1.42 goals at home on average while Cruzeiro concedes 2.0 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Balanced history over the last five head-to-head encounters

Both teams recorded one victory each alongside three draws

The last direct meeting ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw on March 15, 2026

Key Players

For Vasco da Gama Andrés Gómez with four goals and Facundo Colidio with one goal lead the attack

Thiago Mendes pulls the strings in midfield with three goals this season

For the visitors NĂ©iser Villarreal is a key threat with three goals scored this season

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Jardim guards the goal for Vasco da Gama with a seasonal rating of 6.64

His counterpart OtĂĄvio Costa starts for Cruzeiro with the same rating of 6.64

Vasco da Gama has only kept one clean sheet at home while Cruzeiro managed two away clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for Vasco da Gama on grass at EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

The venue averages 2.0 goals per game with a very low BTTS rate of 20%

The mathematical model expects a close game with a slight edge for Cruzeiro at a 38% away win probability

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