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Serie A08/30/2026, 12:20 AM

Vasco da Gama – Cruzeiro3 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Vasco da Gama
1.36
Total xG
2.82
Cruzeiro
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorVasco da GamaCruzeiro
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap)−0.22
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)−0.21
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)−0.18
Attack strength (1.26x league average)+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap)+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.04
Cuiabano on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Matheus Pereira on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Kaio Jorge  on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Keny Arroyo not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Fagner on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Romero on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Bruno Rodrigues not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 32% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Only 33% of the goal threat available for Cruzeiro, without Matheus Pereira, Kaio Jorge, Keny Arroyo, Fagner, Lucas Romero, Bruno Rodrigues and Lucas Villalba
  • Cruzeiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vasco da Gama's 3.4
  • Significant gap in form: Cruzeiro won four of their last five matches (LWWWW) while Vasco da Gama remains winless in five games (LDDLL)

Risks

  • Cuiabano is missing, with only 69% of the goal threat available for Vasco da Gama
  • Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal scoring has stalled with an average of only 0.5 goals in recent matches compared to the season average of 1.1

All probabilities

Result
Vasco da Gama33%
Draw28%
Cruzeiro38%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw62%
Cruzeiro or draw67%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
  2. Cruzeiro: 3.4 cards per game (39 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
  3. Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')
  4. Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
  5. Matheus Pereira: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Lineups

Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1

Vasco da Gama
  • 1 L. Jardim
  • 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
  • 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
  • 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
  • 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
  • 5 S. Sosa
  • 28 A. Ferreira Soares
  • 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
  • 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
  • 11 A. Gomez
  • 9 F. Colidio
Cruzeiro
  • 81 O. Rezende Costa
  • 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
  • 43 J. Messias Ferreira
  • 34 J. de Jesus Alves
  • 27 G. Rojas
  • 5 J. Gomes da Silva
  • 7 M. de Souza
  • 67 J. e Costa Cesco
  • 97 L. RodrĂ­guez Rosales
  • 70 K. Takamura Correa
  • 22 N. Villareal
Substitutes
  • 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
  • 2 J. RodrĂ­guez Bebanz
  • 77 C. Spinelli
  • 4 A. Saldivia VĂĄzquez
  • 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
  • 17 N. Rocha Moreira
  • 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
  • 88 C. Barros da Luz
  • 82 R. Avellar da Silva Fortes
  • 83 R. de Souza Barros
  • 80 B. Azevedo Ribeiro
  • 70 E. Galdino da Silva
  • 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
  • 19 K. Pinto Ramos
  • 25 L. Villalba
  • 2 K. Moraes Silva
  • 10 M. Costa Pereira
  • 29 L. Romero
  • 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
  • 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
  • 23 F. Conserva Lemos
  • 16 L. Silva Borges
  • 1 C. Ramos
  • 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos

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