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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Vitória

08/29/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Vitória
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AMVIT

Atlético Mineiro

Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Bernard not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Victor Hugo on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Mateo Cassierra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Maycon  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.2 vs 1 season average)
-0.26
Erick on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Renê on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Matheuzinho on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
78% of goal output missing (only 30% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Massive squad depletion for Atlético Mineiro: Only 47% of active goal threat is available with key players like Bernard, Victor Hugo, Renan Lodi, Mateo Cassierra, Ruan, and Maycon missing
  • Extreme personnel shortage for Vitória: Just 30% of their regular starting strength is available, with key contributors like Erick, Renê, Matheuzinho, and Ramon out of the lineup
  • Form disparity: Atlético Mineiro remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWDWD) while Vitória is in crisis with 4 losses in 5 games (LLLWL)
Risk Factors
  • Vitória concedes a catastrophic average of 3.71 goals per away match this season
  • Vitória averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Atlético Mineiro hosts Vitória in Serie A

Match on August 29, 2026, 6:30 PM at the Arena MRV

Atlético Mineiro is in 9th place with 33 points, while Vitória occupies 12th place with 29 points

A mid-table clash with both teams looking to climb

Form

Atlético Mineiro shows stable form (DWDWD, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Unbeaten in the last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws

Vitória is struggling with 4 losses in their last 5 games (LLLWL)

The current trend heavily favors the undefeated hosts

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.3 goals per game and concedes 1.17

Vitória averages 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per match

Vitória's defense is extremely vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 3.71 goals per away game

Atlético Mineiro maintains a solid home scoring average of 1.31 goals per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

Vitória dominates the history with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 wins for Atlético Mineiro

Goal difference stands at 11-6 in favor of Vitória

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 win for Vitória on March 14, 2026

Key Players

Alan Minda recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

Reinier scored twice with a rating of 6.87

Angelo Preciado contributed 1 assist

Diego Tarzia got 2 goals and 2 assists

Caíque Gonçalves averages a 6.79 rating

Luan Cândido registered 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Delfim starts in goal for Atlético Mineiro and has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Lucas Arcanjo guards Vitória's goal and boasts an impressive 9 clean sheets in 20 appearances

Statistically, Arcanjo displays a solid season performance with an average rating of 7.04

Influences

Home advantage favors Atlético Mineiro, conceding only 1.0 goals per game at the Arena MRV

In the 5 home matches played at this stadium, games averaged 3.0 total goals

Both teams scored in 60% of those matches

The game will be played on natural grass

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