Match report →
Atlético Mineiro – Vitória2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.36
Total xG
2.19
Vitória
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.46 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Bernard not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Victor Hugo on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mateo Cassierra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Maycon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Erick on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Renê on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheuzinho on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 78% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Massive squad depletion for Atlético Mineiro: Only 47% of active goal threat is available with key players like Bernard, Victor Hugo, Renan Lodi, Mateo Cassierra, Ruan, and Maycon missing
- Extreme personnel shortage for Vitória: Just 30% of their regular starting strength is available, with key contributors like Erick, Renê, Matheuzinho, and Ramon out of the lineup
- Form disparity: Atlético Mineiro remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWDWD) while Vitória is in crisis with 4 losses in 5 games (LLLWL)
Risks
- Vitória concedes a catastrophic average of 3.71 goals per away match this season
- Vitória averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro48%
Draw31%
Vitória21%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw79%
Vitória or draw52%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 36 K. Resende
- 25 T. Pérez
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 27 A. Minda García
- 18 T. Borbas
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 2 E. Brítez
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 9 Alex Bruno
Substitutes
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 29 C. Soares
- 28 T. Cuello
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 48 J. P. P. Lucrécio
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
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