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Serie A

Grêmio - Chapecoense

08/30/2026, 09:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Chapecoense
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
GRÊCHA

Grêmio

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.05
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.02
Carlos Vinícius on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Erick Noriega not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Juan Nardoni not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
79% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.96
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.09
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Chapecoense: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Only 52% of the goal threat available, without Carlos Vinícius, Francis Amuzu, Erick Noriega, Tetê, Juan Nardoni
  • Grêmio averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Chapecoense's heavy away vulnerability with 2.71 conceded goals per game on average
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense are scoring more frequently recently (1.4) compared to their season average (1.1)
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Grêmio host Chapecoense at the Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 11:30 PM

Grêmio sit in 15th place with 25 points

Chapecoense are bottom of the table in 20th place with 14 points

The model predicts 1.43 expected goals for Grêmio and 1.01 for Chapecoense

Form

Grêmio's current form is LDWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Chapecoense show a form of LDLDW

The visitors achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Statistics

Grêmio score an average of 1.06 goals and concede 0.76 goals at home

Chapecoense concede an average of 2.71 goals per away game

The hosts have conceded only 13 goals in 17 home matches

Chapecoense are still waiting for their first clean sheet on the road

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams

Their last meeting on March 16, 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw

The overall head-to-head record is completely even

Key Players

Cristian Pavón scored 1 goal and provided 3 assists so far this season

Wallace has already scored 1 goal in 3 appearances with a 7.34 average rating

Giovanni Augusto is crucial for Chapecoense with 1 goal and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Weverton guards the goal for Grêmio with a season rating of 6.91

Anderson plays in goal for Chapecoense with an average rating of 7.03

Grêmio have kept 5 clean sheets this season compared to 2 for Chapecoense

Influences

The Arena do Grêmio averages 3.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at this venue

Grêmio's home advantage is backed by a very solid home defense

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