Match report →
Grêmio – Chapecoense3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.43
Total xG
2.44
Chapecoense
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.96 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Carlos Vinícius on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Erick Noriega not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Juan Nardoni not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 79% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 52% of the goal threat available, without Carlos Vinícius, Francis Amuzu, Erick Noriega, Tetê, Juan Nardoni
- Grêmio averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Chapecoense's heavy away vulnerability with 2.71 conceded goals per game on average
Risks
- Chapecoense are scoring more frequently recently (1.4) compared to their season average (1.1)
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio45%
Draw30%
Chapecoense25%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw75%
Chapecoense or draw55%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Grêmio: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Chapecoense: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-1-4-1 · Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 7 C. Pavón
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 22 M. Braithwait
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 5 H. Rodrigues da Fonseca
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 31 M. Garcez
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 11 Tetê
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 40 Jéferson Forneck
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 97 Ênio
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 12 Fernando
- 77 D. Borrero Caicedo
- 44 L. Bertolo Ludwig
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