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Serie A

Flamengo - Botafogo

08/30/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Botafogo
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FLABOT

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.58
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
Jorge Carrascal on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Botafogo

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.08
Matheus Martins not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 3.6 cards per game (40 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Flamengo: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Botafogo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 5
    Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')

  • 6
    Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 61% home win probability with 1.81 expected goals for Flamengo
  • Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 59.8% average possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
  • Offensive gap: While Flamengo remains stable with a recent average of 2.0 goals per game, Botafogo's goal production has stalled at just 1.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Botafogo concedes an average of 1.82 goals per game in away matches
  • Absences: Flamengo is without suspended forward B. Pinto as well as the unnominated Jorge Carrascal and Guillermo Varela
Overview

Flamengo host Botafogo at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 9:00 PM

Flamengo sits in 2nd place with 45 points, chasing the top position

Botafogo travels as the 12th-placed team with 30 points

Form

Flamengo's recent form is DDWWL

Their last match ended in a loss against Cruzeiro

Botafogo's form stands at DWDLL

They have suffered two consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Flamengo averages 1.96 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per match this season

At home, their average is 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded

Botafogo averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

In away games, Botafogo concedes an average of 1.82 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams have won 2 games with 1 draw

The goal difference is 7 to 6 in favor of Flamengo

The last meeting ended in a 3:0 victory

Key Players

Pedro leads Flamengo's attack with 15 goals and 4 assists

Samuel Lino has contributed 6 goals and 7 assists this season

Giorgian de Arrascaeta has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists

For Botafogo, Danilo stands out with 7 goals and 2 assists

Arthur Cabral has scored 7 goals and provided 1 assist

Alex Telles contributed 3 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated: Jorge Carrascal (3 goals, 4 assists) and Guillermo Varela (0 goals, 3 assists) for Flamengo, Matheus Martins (4 goals, 0 assists) for Botafogo

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi played 23 matches and recorded 9 clean sheets

Gabriel Batista has only 1 appearance for Botafogo with a 6.2 average rating

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

The venue averaged 2.4 goals per match in recent games

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