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Flamengo – Botafogo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.81
Total xG
2.57
Botafogo
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Jorge Carrascal on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Matheus Martins not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 61% home win probability with 1.81 expected goals for Flamengo
- Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 59.8% average possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
- Offensive gap: While Flamengo remains stable with a recent average of 2.0 goals per game, Botafogo's goal production has stalled at just 1.0 goals per game
Risks
- Away weakness: Botafogo concedes an average of 1.82 goals per game in away matches
- Absences: Flamengo is without suspended forward B. Pinto as well as the unnominated Jorge Carrascal and Guillermo Varela
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo61%
Draw25%
Botafogo14%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw86%
Botafogo or draw39%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 3.6 cards per game (40 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Flamengo: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Botafogo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
- Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 3-4-2-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 34 E. Justino
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Substitutes
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 13 D. da Silva
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 39 Josmar Silva Miranda
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 37 K. Barria
- 6 C. Medina
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 33 L. Monzón
- 62 C. Lucas
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