Match report →
Remo – Coritiba2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Remo
0.93
Total xG
1.88
Coritiba
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 9, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 19, 10 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Jajá not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Josué not in squad (1 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Both teams recently played counter-oriented with low possession (Remo averaged 42%, Coritiba averaged 40%)
- Balanced prediction: The calculation model shows the highest probability for a draw at 36%
- Coritiba offensive edge: Breno Lopes brings significant goal threat for the visitors with 8 goals this season
Risks
- Jajá is missing, only 66% of seasonal goal threat available for Remo
- Coritiba averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
- J. Soares Pesqueira is out for Coritiba due to muscle fatigue, weakening creativity with 9 assists missing
All probabilities
Result
Remo32%
Draw36%
Coritiba33%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Double chance
Remo or draw67%
Coritiba or draw68%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:2
7%
2:3
Final score
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 28 J. da Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 88 F. Pereira do Nascimento
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 28 F. da Silva
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 33 D. França
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 37 L. Crepaldi Pimentel
- 30 K. Mpusane Eustaquio Machel
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