Match report â
Bahia â Internacional3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.27
Total xG
2.12
Internacional
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | â0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | â0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.1 season average) | â0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap) | â0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Jean Lucas not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ademir on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Johan Carbonero on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Bahia is recently scoring more (2.0) than their season average (1.6), while Internacional averaged just 0.7 goals
- Home vs Away mismatch: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Internacional concedes 1.50 goals on the road
- Model confidence: The mathematical model predicts a 44% home win probability and a 77% chance for a Home or Draw outcome
Risks
- Squad impact for visitors: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 75% of the regular starting lineup strength available
- Defensive suspensions: Yellow card suspensions for G. Mercado and B. Gomes da Silva ClevelĂĄrio weaken Internacional's vulnerable defense
- Low-scoring tendency: Venue statistics indicate a low average of 1.8 goals per match, and the model predicts Over 2.5 at only 36%
All probabilities
Result
Bahia44%
Draw32%
Internacional23%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Bahia or draw77%
Internacional or draw56%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (30 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
Bahia 4-3-3 · Internacional 5-3-2
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. GĂłmez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo TabĂĄrez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. VĂ©liz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 3 G. MaripĂĄn Loaysa
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 8 B. Corsini
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 10 A. Lourenço
Substitutes
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. AraĂșjo Villar
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 19 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 5 R. Villagra
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 46 P. Machado
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 52 G. Vinicius
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