Serie A
Bahia - Internacional
08/30/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Bahia
Internacional
The Lab
- 1Bahia: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- 2Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (30 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- 3Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
32%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Form trend: Bahia is recently scoring more (2.0) than their season average (1.6), while Internacional averaged just 0.7 goals
- Home vs Away mismatch: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Internacional concedes 1.50 goals on the road
- Model confidence: The mathematical model predicts a 44% home win probability and a 77% chance for a Home or Draw outcome
Risk Factors
- Squad impact for visitors: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 75% of the regular starting lineup strength available
- Defensive suspensions: Yellow card suspensions for G. Mercado and B. Gomes da Silva ClevelĂĄrio weaken Internacional's vulnerable defense
- Low-scoring tendency: Venue statistics indicate a low average of 1.8 goals per match, and the model predicts Over 2.5 at only 36%
Overview
Bahia host Internacional in Serie A
Match on August 30, 2026, 10:30 PM at Arena Fonte Nova
6th-placed Bahia face 17th-placed Internacional
Bahia fight for top positions while Internacional seek to escape the relegation zone
Form
Bahia show stable form with the string DDDDW
They recorded 1 win and 4 draws in their last five matches
Internacional are winless in their last five games with the string LDDDD
The visitors concluded their recent matches with 4 consecutive draws
Statistics
Bahia score an average of 1.42 goals and concede 1.17 goals per match
Internacional average 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded goals per game
On the road Internacional concede an average of 1.50 goals per game
Bahia have kept 8 clean sheets so far this season
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 2 times and Internacional won once
There were 2 draws between the sides
The last direct meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Bahia
Key Players
Luciano Juba shines for Bahia with 7 goals and a season rating of 7.16
David Duarte supports the hosts with 3 goals and a rating of 7.10
Alexandro Bernabei leads Internacional with 4 goals and a rating of 7.17
Alan Patrick added 3 goals from midfield for the visitors
Not nominated: Jean Lucas (3 goals, 3 assists) and Ademir (1 goal, 1 assist) for Bahia
Not nominated: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) for Internacional
Goalkeepers
Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal with a rating of 7.11 and contributed to 8 clean sheets
Matheus Cunha plays for Internacional with a rating of 6.96 and 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match is played at Arena Fonte Nova on grass
Bahia's home advantage is backed by conceding only 0.92 goals per home match
Venue statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per match at this stadium