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Serie A

São Paulo - Bragantino

08/29/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Bragantino
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SPBRA

São Paulo

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Jonathan Calleri  on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Bragantino

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (15 points lost)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home strength: São Paulo concedes an average of only 0.64 goals per match in front of their own fans
  • Tactical possession: São Paulo recently dominated with 62.2% average possession compared to Bragantino's 48.2%
  • Form trend: Bragantino comes in with confidence after their recent 1-0 win, while São Paulo remains winless in 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Jonathan Calleri and Wendell are missing, leaving only 64% of the usual attacking threat available
  • Struggling attack: Both teams averaged only 0.8 goals per match in recent games
  • São Paulo's poor form: The hosts earned only two points from their last 5 matches
Overview

São Paulo host Bragantino at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Serie A match on August 29, 2026, 11:00 PM

Clash between the 13th-placed home side with 27 points and 7th-placed Bragantino with 35 points

The hosts aim to close the gap to the upper half of the table

Form

São Paulo struggle with form showing LDLDL (L = Loss, D = Draw)

Most recent match ended in a 0-1 defeat against Chapecoense

Bragantino show a more stable trend with DDLDW (W = Win)

The visitors won their last match 1-0 against Grêmio

Statistics

São Paulo average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded this season

Their home record highlights a solid defense with only 0.64 goals conceded per game

Bragantino average 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per match

The visitors have conceded an average of 1.33 goals in away fixtures

Head-to-Head

Balanced record in the last 5 head-to-head matches

Two wins for São Paulo, one win for Bragantino, and two draws

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo on March 15, 2026

The goal difference stands at 7-5 in favor of São Paulo

Key Players

Luciano has scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists in 19 matches (7.05 rating)

Marcos Antônio impresses with rising form and a rating of 7.43 over his last 5 matches

Artur has contributed 2 goals this season with a 7.00 rating

Isidro Pitta has registered 5 goals and 2 assists in 21 appearances

Lucas Barbosa has added 4 goals so far with a 7.10 rating

Juninho Capixaba has already scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists from defense

Goalkeepers

Rafael played 23 games and kept 4 clean sheets so far

Tiago Volpi has featured in 16 matches and registered 8 clean sheets

Influences

The Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo features a natural grass surface

The last 5 home games averaged 3.2 goals

Both teams scored in all 5 matches (100% BTTS rate)

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