Match report →
São Paulo – Bragantino2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.43
Total xG
2.72
Bragantino
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Jonathan Calleri on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defensive home strength: São Paulo concedes an average of only 0.64 goals per match in front of their own fans
- Tactical possession: São Paulo recently dominated with 62.2% average possession compared to Bragantino's 48.2%
- Form trend: Bragantino comes in with confidence after their recent 1-0 win, while São Paulo remains winless in 5 matches
Risks
- Jonathan Calleri and Wendell are missing, leaving only 64% of the usual attacking threat available
- Struggling attack: Both teams averaged only 0.8 goals per match in recent games
- São Paulo's poor form: The hosts earned only two points from their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo39%
Draw29%
Bragantino32%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw68%
Bragantino or draw61%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (15 points lost)
- São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 20 A. Ulineia Buta
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 2 R. Tolói
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 41 Y. Alves de Aquino
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