šŸ‡§šŸ‡·

Serie A

Corinthians - Santos

08/30/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Corinthians
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Santos
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CORSAN

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.51
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Breno Bidon not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Santos

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

34%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Santos averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Defensive home edge: Corinthians concede an average of only 0.83 goals per game at home
  • Statistical outlook: The model calculates a 72% probability for the double chance home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Santos concede an average of 1.90 goals per away game
  • Lack of scoring threat: Corinthians have scored only 26 goals in 24 matches this season
Overview

Corinthians host Santos at the Arena Corinthians

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 8:00 PM

Mid-table clash between 10th and 14th place

Form

Corinthians with the form DDWLL in recent matches

The home side recently recorded one draw and two losses

Santos show the form LDLWD with a draw in their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Corinthians score an average of 1.08 goals per home game

The home defense is stable, conceding 0.83 goals per home match

Santos concede an average of 1.90 goals in away games

The away side score an average of 1.50 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in recent years

Even record with one win for each team and one draw

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on March 15, 2026

Key Players

Rodrigo Garro excels in midfield with 3 goals and 6 assists

Matheuzinho shows a rising form trend with an average rating of 6.98

Neymar shines with 6 goals and 3 assists in 11 appearances

Goalkeepers

Hugo Souza is in goal for Corinthians with an average rating of 6.73

Gabriel BrazĆ£o guards the Santos net with an average rating of 6.71

Corinthians have kept 10 clean sheets this season, while Santos recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage is supported by the solid Arena Corinthians, where the hosts concede only 0.83 goals per game

The stadium features a natural grass playing surface

Venue statistics indicate an average of 2.0 total goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.