Match report ā
Corinthians ā Santos0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
1.11
Total xG
2.05
Santos
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | ā0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | ā0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.03 | |
| Breno Bidon not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Santos averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Defensive home edge: Corinthians concede an average of only 0.83 goals per game at home
- Statistical outlook: The model calculates a 72% probability for the double chance home win or draw
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Santos concede an average of 1.90 goals per away game
- Lack of scoring threat: Corinthians have scored only 26 goals in 24 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians38%
Draw34%
Santos29%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw71%
Santos or draw62%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 Ā· Santos 4-2-3-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. FranƧa Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima BeltrĆ£o Oliveira
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 10 M. Depay
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende BrazĆ£o
- 18 I. de Souza
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 15 W. Souza ArĆ£o da Silva
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 10 Neymar
- 22 Ć. Barreal
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans CarƔmbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 56 G. Silva InƔcio
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 55 I. Machado
- 64 L. dos Santos de Nardi
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 1 D. da Silva
- 21 M. Vieira da Veiga
- 16 T. da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva GimƩnez
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 81 S. e Silva
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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