Match report â
Mirassol â Palmeiras1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
0.91
Total xG
2.19
Palmeiras
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | â0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap) | â0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Edson Carioca not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jhon Arias not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| JoaquĂn Piquerez not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Palmeiras recently controlled matches with an average of 59.2% possession
- League standing gap: The league leaders travel as clear favorites against 18th-placed Mirassol
- Offensive form: Palmeiras are currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average
Risks
- Home ground warning: Mirassol won the last direct duel in their own stadium 2-1
- Limited attacking threat: Mirassol averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol25%
Draw32%
Palmeiras43%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw57%
Palmeiras or draw75%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
13%
0:2
9%
1:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: 8 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 4 A. Giay
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. GĂłmez Portillo
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 42 J. LĂłpez
- 18 M. MagalhĂŁes Prado
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
Substitutes
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 55 G. Cazonatti
- 32 E. MartĂnez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 29 M. C. Bilong
- 66 A. Domingos
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