đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Mirassol - Palmeiras

08/30/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Mirassol
0.9
Total xG
2.2
Palmeiras
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

13%

0:2

9%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
MIRPAL

Mirassol

Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Edson Carioca  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Palmeiras

Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average)
+0.23
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Jhon Arias not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Piquerez not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 8 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Mirassol: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

32%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Palmeiras recently controlled matches with an average of 59.2% possession
  • League standing gap: The league leaders travel as clear favorites against 18th-placed Mirassol
  • Offensive form: Palmeiras are currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average
Risk Factors
  • Home ground warning: Mirassol won the last direct duel in their own stadium 2-1
  • Limited attacking threat: Mirassol averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Mirassol (18th place, 24 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 51 points) at the Estådio José Maria de Campos Maia

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 11:30 PM

A clash between the relegation-threatened home side and the league leaders

Form

Mirassol's current form is DWLLD with one win from their last five matches

Palmeiras travel with a form of LWDLW after winning their last game 4-1 against Vasco da Gama

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras average 1.83 goals scored per match this season

Mirassol have conceded 36 goals in 23 league matches so far

The visitors have allowed only 20 goals against them this season

Head-to-Head

An even historical record with one win for each side and one draw

The last head-to-head match on March 15, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away win for Palmeiras

The goal difference remains balanced at 3-3 after three matches

Key Players

Igor Formiga solidifies Mirassol's defense and has already scored four goals this season

Defender JoĂŁo Victor stands out with two goals and an average rating of 6.95

Reinaldo has recorded one goal and four assists for the home side

Andreas Pereira shines for Palmeiras with eleven assists and a 7.27 rating

Forward José Manuel López has already scored eight goals with a 7.15 rating

Mauricio poses a major goal threat in midfield with six goals this season

Goalkeepers

Walter played 21 matches for Mirassol, averaging a 6.79 rating

Carlos Miguel starts for Palmeiras, having recorded nine clean sheets this season

Both goalkeepers are in the starting lineups

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estådio José Maria de Campos Maia

Stadium statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per match and an 80% BTTS rate

Palmeiras remain solid on the road, conceding only 0.85 goals per away game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.