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Serie A

Botafogo - Palmeiras

09/06/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Palmeiras
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

11%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
BOTPAL

Botafogo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.24
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.12
Alex Telles  not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Palmeiras

Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average)
+0.24
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.06
Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Jhon Arias on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Vitor Roque on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Murilo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 3.6 cards per game (40 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')

  • 3
    Botafogo: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

34%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Palmeiras scores more frequently recently (2.8) compared to Botafogo (0.8)
  • Squad blow: Botafogo has to play without Alex Telles, who was involved in 7 goals
  • Offensive efforts: Botafogo averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad depth: Palmeiras is missing four players in Allan, Jhon Arias, Vitor Roque, and Murilo
  • Defensive vulnerability: Botafogo concedes an average of 1.67 goals per match
Overview

Botafogo (12th place, 30 points) host league leaders Palmeiras (1st place, 52 points) at Estádio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 9:30 PM

The visitors enter the match as favorites

Form

Botafogo is in poor form with WDLLL

They suffered three consecutive defeats recently

Palmeiras remains more stable with WDLWD

Statistics

Botafogo averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded

The hosts' goalscoring has slowed down recently to 0.8 goals

Palmeiras averages 1.85 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded away

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins each in 5 head-to-head matches

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 win for Palmeiras

Key Players

Danilo leads the home midfield with 7 goals this season

Arthur Cabral has also scored 7 goals for Botafogo

Andreas Pereira shines for the visitors with 11 assists

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Batista has made only 2 appearances for Botafogo this season

Carlos Miguel guards the Palmeiras goal and has already recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

An average of 2.8 goals are scored per match at Estádio Nilton Santos

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches

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