Match report →
Botafogo – Palmeiras0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
0.98
Total xG
2.08
Palmeiras
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Alex Telles not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jhon Arias on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Vitor Roque on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Murilo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Palmeiras scores more frequently recently (2.8) compared to Botafogo (0.8)
- Squad blow: Botafogo has to play without Alex Telles, who was involved in 7 goals
- Offensive efforts: Botafogo averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad depth: Palmeiras is missing four players in Allan, Jhon Arias, Vitor Roque, and Murilo
- Defensive vulnerability: Botafogo concedes an average of 1.67 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo30%
Draw34%
Palmeiras36%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw64%
Palmeiras or draw70%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
12%
1:0
11%
0:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 3.6 cards per game (40 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
- Botafogo: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Botafogo 4-4-2 · Palmeiras 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 33 L. Monzón
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 4 A. Giay
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 42 J. López
Substitutes
- 37 K. Barria
- 6 C. Medina
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 36 G. da Silva Abdias
- 34 E. Justino
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 21 B. Oliveira Bertinato
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →