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Serie A

Vitória - Grêmio

09/07/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VITGRÊ

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average)
-0.19
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.11
Ramon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Marlon  not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Juan Nardoni on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home strength: Vitória conceded only 0.53 goals per home match on average
  • Tactical approach: Vitória played counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 40% possession
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 74% probability for the Home or Draw scenario
Risk Factors
  • Away struggles: Grêmio concedes an extremely high average of 3.6 goals per away match
  • Low offensive efficiency: Vitória averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Weak attacking threat: Grêmio also averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match recently
Overview

Vitória (14th place, 29 points) host Grêmio (15th place, 28 points)

Match on September 7, 2026, 11:00 PM at Estádio Manoel Barradas

A direct clash in the lower half of the Serie A standings

The home side is slightly favored with a 42% win probability according to the model

Form

Vitória shows a weak form of LLWLL with 1 win and 4 losses

Grêmio travels with a form of DWLLW

The visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Vitória scored an average of 0.96 goals per match and conceded 1.48

Grêmio averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

The hosts conceded only 0.53 goals per match on average at home

The visitors show a massive away weakness with 3.6 goals conceded per game on average

Head-to-Head

Grêmio dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 3:9 against Vitória

The last encounter ended in a 2:0 victory for Grêmio on March 19, 2026

Key Players

Erick (3 goals, 4 assists), Renê (5 goals, 1 assist), and Matheuzinho (3 goals, 1 assist) lead Vitória's gameplay

Carlos Vinícius (10 goals, 1 assist) and Cristian Pavón (2 goals, 4 assists) are key for Grêmio

Not nominated for Grêmio: Francis Amuzu (1G/3A), Marlon (1G/1A), Juan Nardoni (1G/1A)

Not nominated for Vitória: Ramon (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo starts in goal for Vitória and kept 9 clean sheets this season

Weverton plays for Grêmio and recorded 5 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on grass at Estádio Manoel Barradas

Venue history shows a low average of 2.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 0% of the last 5 home matches at this stadium

Home advantage for Vitória, defending very stably on their own pitch

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