Match report →
Vitória – Grêmio1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.25
Total xG
2.18
Grêmio
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Ramon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marlon not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan Nardoni on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive home strength: Vitória conceded only 0.53 goals per home match on average
- Tactical approach: Vitória played counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 40% possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 74% probability for the Home or Draw scenario
Risks
- Away struggles: Grêmio concedes an extremely high average of 3.6 goals per away match
- Low offensive efficiency: Vitória averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Weak attacking threat: Grêmio also averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match recently
All probabilities
Result
Vitória42%
Draw32%
Grêmio26%
Double chance
Vitória or draw74%
Grêmio or draw58%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Grêmio: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Vitória 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio 4-1-4-1
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 2 E. Brítez
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 8 E. Noriega
- 11 Tetê
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 7 C. Pavón
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Substitutes
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 18 K. Santos Neves Coutinho
- 41 W. dos Santos Sacramento
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 69 W. Oliveira
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
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