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Serie A

Remo - Flamengo

09/06/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Remo
0.9
Total xG
2.4
Flamengo
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

0:0

11%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
REMFLA

Remo

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.66
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Jajá on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Flamengo

Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.33
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap)
+0.10
Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Erick Pulgar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Samuel Lino: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Remo: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)

  • 4
    Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

29%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Form and standings gap: Second-placed Flamengo (WWLWW) visits second-to-last Remo (LDDLL) as clear favorites
  • Absence of Jajá: Remo must play without their threatening forward (7 goals, 1 assist), weakening their attacking threat
  • Offensive dominance: Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per game this season and features top scorer Pedro with 15 goals
Risk Factors
  • Flamengo with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Remo averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Remo (19th place, 23 points) host Flamengo (2nd place, 51 points)

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 7:00 PM at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

A highly unequal matchup between relegation battle and championship race

Form

Flamengo is in excellent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches (Form: WWLWW)

Remo is winless in 5 matches, securing only 2 points (Form: LDDLL)

The momentum clearly favors the visitors from Rio

Statistics

Flamengo scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and has a strong defense conceding 0.84 goals

Remo averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game

The away team has kept 11 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

There has been only one head-to-head match between these teams

Flamengo won that previous encounter convincingly 3-0 in March 2026

Key Players

Pedro leads the attack with 15 league goals and 5 assists

Jorge Carrascal is in rising form with 3 goals and 5 assists in his last 5 appearances

Gabriel Taliari remains a key offensive figure with 4 goals this season

Not nominated: Jajá (7G/1A), Guillermo Varela (0G/3A), Erick Pulgar (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi has kept 11 clean sheets for Flamengo this season

Marcelo Rangel has recorded 3 clean sheets for Remo with a 7.01 season average rating

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.0 goals per game

The mathematical model calculates a 21% probability for a home win and 49% for an away win

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