Match report →
Remo – Flamengo0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Remo
0.90
Total xG
2.39
Flamengo
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Jajá on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Erick Pulgar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form and standings gap: Second-placed Flamengo (WWLWW) visits second-to-last Remo (LDDLL) as clear favorites
- Absence of Jajá: Remo must play without their threatening forward (7 goals, 1 assist), weakening their attacking threat
- Offensive dominance: Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per game this season and features top scorer Pedro with 15 goals
Risks
- Flamengo with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Remo averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Remo21%
Draw29%
Flamengo49%
Double chance
Remo or draw51%
Flamengo or draw79%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
0:0
11%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Samuel Lino: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Remo: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 14 L. Picco
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 28 J. da Silva
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 13 D. da Silva
- 30 J. Freitas
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 14 A. Valencia
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →