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Bragantino – Bahia2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.44
Total xG
2.44
Bahia
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Rising form (2.7 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | −0.27 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Isidro Pitta not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Agustín Sant'Anna not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jean Lucas on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Opposing form trends: Bahia is scoring more frequently recently with 2.7 goals per game compared to 1.6 season average, whereas Bragantino's goal production has stalled at 0.8
- Historical dominance: Bahia won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Bragantino, including the last clash which ended 2-0
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Bragantino with a 46% win probability despite their form dip, predicting 1.44 expected home goals
Risks
- Offensive inefficiency of Bragantino: The team recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable away defense: Bahia concedes an average of 1.55 goals per away match this season
- Key absences for Bragantino: Isidro Pitta with 5 goals and 2 assists is missing from the starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino46%
Draw30%
Bahia24%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw76%
Bahia or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-3-3
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Substitutes
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 52 R. da Silva
- 67 J. N. Coelho
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
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