Serie A
Bragantino - Bahia
09/05/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.4
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
10%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Bragantino
Bahia
The Lab
- 1Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
30%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Opposing form trends: Bahia is scoring more frequently recently with 2.7 goals per game compared to 1.6 season average, whereas Bragantino's goal production has stalled at 0.8
- Historical dominance: Bahia won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Bragantino, including the last clash which ended 2-0
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Bragantino with a 46% win probability despite their form dip, predicting 1.44 expected home goals
Risk Factors
- Offensive inefficiency of Bragantino: The team recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable away defense: Bahia concedes an average of 1.55 goals per away match this season
- Key absences for Bragantino: Isidro Pitta with 5 goals and 2 assists is missing from the starting lineup
Overview
Bragantino hosts Bahia in Serie A
The match takes place at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques on September 5, 2026, 9:00 PM
Bahia is in 5th place with 40 points, while Bragantino is in 9th place with 35 points
A competitive clash in the upper mid-table
Form
Bragantino's form is DLDWL with 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
Their last result was a defeat against São Paulo
Bahia has a positive trend of DDDWW and remains unbeaten recently
Bahia won their last two matches against Internacional and Vitória
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bragantino has scored 29 goals and conceded 25 so far this season
At home, their defense is solid, conceding an average of only 0.79 goals per game
Bahia scores an average of 1.48 goals per game but concedes 1.55 on average in away matches
Bahia's matches are often high-scoring with 16 games where both teams scored
Head-to-Head
There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams
Bahia dominates the historical record with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Bragantino
No draws have been recorded in these encounters
The last direct duel ended in a 2-0 victory for Bahia on March 18, 2026
Key Players
Lucas Barbosa is a key attacker for Bragantino with 4 goals this season and a 7.08 rating
Defender Juninho Capixaba has contributed 3 goals so far and holds a 7.14 rating
Fernando has shown rising form with 2 goals in his last 4 matches
Luciano Juba is Bahia's high-scoring defender with 7 goals this season
Erick Pulga is in great form with 2 goals and 1 assist in Bahia's last 5 games
Alejo Veliz has already scored 2 goals in only 6 appearances for the visitors
Goalkeepers
Tiago Volpi has played 17 times for Bragantino this season, scoring 2 goals
Bragantino has recorded 8 clean sheets so far this campaign
Ronaldo has made 16 appearances in goal for Bahia with a solid 7.07 rating
Bahia also has 8 clean sheets to their name this season
Influences
The game is played on natural grass at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques
Stadium statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per game in recent matches at this venue
Only 1 out of 5 matches saw both teams score at this stadium
Bragantino benefits from their home ground, scoring an average of 1.21 goals at home