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Serie A

Coritiba - Mirassol

09/06/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Mirassol
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CORMIR

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.06
JosuĂŠ on the bench (1 goals, 9 assists)
Tiago CĂłser not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Mirassol

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.08
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Mirassol: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)

  • 3
    Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Home and form advantage: Coritiba recently won two games in a row, while Mirassol is winless in five matches
  • Offensive trend: Coritiba currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
  • Away weakness: Mirassol concedes an average of 2.22 goals per away match and has recorded zero clean sheets on the road
Risk Factors
  • Low shot accuracy: Coritiba recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game
  • Historical setback: In the only head-to-head match so far, Coritiba suffered a defeat against Mirassol
  • Missing regular players: With JosuĂŠ, Tiago CĂłser, and Tinga, the hosts are missing three players in the squad
Overview

Coritiba (7th place, 37 points) host Mirassol (16th place, 25 points)

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 4:00 PM

The hosts enter this duel as favorites against the relegation-threatened opponent

Form

Coritiba is in strong shape with form trend LWDWW and two consecutive wins

Mirassol has been winless for five games with form LLDDL

Form summary numbers: Coritiba has 3 wins and 1 draw, Mirassol has 0 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Coritiba averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

Mirassol has a season average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game

In away games, Mirassol concedes an average of 2.22 goals with 0 clean sheets

In 13 out of 25 games of the hosts, there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Mirassol leads the record with 1 win

The last duel on March 18, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Mirassol

Key Players

Breno Lopes is the hosts' top scorer with 8 goals this season

Pedro Rocha scored 7 goals this season, including 3 goals in his last five matches

Eduardo scored 4 times for the visitors this season, including 2 goals in his last four games

Goalkeepers

Pedro Morisco has played 9 times in goal for Coritiba this season and kept 2 clean sheets

Alex Muralha has played 1 match for Mirassol this season

Coritiba has 6 clean sheets, while Mirassol kept only 1 clean sheet

Influences

The match will be played at EstĂĄdio Major AntĂ´nio Couto Pereira on grass

The stadium statistics show an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 home matches

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