Match report →
Coritiba – Mirassol1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.42
Total xG
2.34
Mirassol
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Josué on the bench (1 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Tiago Cóser not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Home and form advantage: Coritiba recently won two games in a row, while Mirassol is winless in five matches
- Offensive trend: Coritiba currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
- Away weakness: Mirassol concedes an average of 2.22 goals per away match and has recorded zero clean sheets on the road
Risks
- Low shot accuracy: Coritiba recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game
- Historical setback: In the only head-to-head match so far, Coritiba suffered a defeat against Mirassol
- Missing regular players: With Josué, Tiago Cóser, and Tinga, the hosts are missing three players in the squad
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba47%
Draw30%
Mirassol23%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw77%
Mirassol or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
- Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 4-1-4-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 28 F. da Silva
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Mirassol
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 14 G. Silva Figueiredo
- 37 L. Crepaldi Pimentel
- 30 K. Mpusane Eustaquio Machel
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 55 G. Cazonatti
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