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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Athletico PR

09/06/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Athletico PR
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
CRUAP

Cruzeiro

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)

Athletico PR

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Gastón Benavídez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

32%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Recent form: Cruzeiro won four of their last five matches, while Athletico PR remains unbeaten in five games
  • Offensive threat: Athletico PR's Kevin Viveros is the most dangerous player on the pitch with 17 season goals
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Cruzeiro concedes only 1.0 goals per game at home, whereas Athletico PR concedes 1.67 on the road
Risk Factors
  • Missing playmaker: Athletico PR is without the suspended Gastón Benavídez, losing 26% of their seasonal assists
  • Defensive risk for the visitors: Athletico PR concedes 1.67 goals on the road compared to their overall average of 1.09
  • Tactical balance: Cruzeiro recently averaged 5.0 shots on target with balanced possession
Overview

Cruzeiro hosts Athletico PR at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 7:00 PM

6th-placed Cruzeiro with 39 points challenges 3rd-placed Athletico PR with 45 points

An important clash in the upper tier of the Brazilian league

Form

Cruzeiro shows a form curve of WWWWL with 4 wins and 1 loss recently

Their winning streak was snapped by a defeat in their last match

Athletico PR is undefeated in their last 5 matches with a form of DWDWD

The visitors recently recorded a draw after two wins and three draws overall

Statistics

Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.4 goals per game while conceding 1.44

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding only 1.0 goals per game

Athletico PR scores 1.48 goals per match and concedes an average of 1.0

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals while scoring 1.56

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 direct encounters between these teams

Athletico PR has won 2 matches, while Cruzeiro won 1 game

The last meeting on March 18, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Athletico PR

None of the matches ended in a draw, with a goal difference of 5-3 in favor of Athletico PR

Key Players

Matheus Pereira is Cruzeiro's top midfielder with 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Kaio Jorge also shines for Cruzeiro with 6 league goals so far

Kevin Viveros is the standout player for Athletico PR with an impressive 17 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Otávio Costa is in goal for Cruzeiro with a season average rating of 6.70

Athletico PR relies on Mycael, who played one game with a rating of 7.05

Cruzeiro kept 5 clean sheets this season, while Athletico PR secured 8

Influences

An average of 2.6 goals are scored per match at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Both teams scored in 4 of Cruzeiro's last 5 home games (80% BTTS rate)

Cruzeiro benefits from a tighter home defense, conceding only 1.0 goals per game

The natural grass pitch provides optimal conditions for a controlled game

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