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Cruzeiro – Athletico PR3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.30
Total xG
2.19
Athletico PR
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gastón Benavídez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Recent form: Cruzeiro won four of their last five matches, while Athletico PR remains unbeaten in five games
- Offensive threat: Athletico PR's Kevin Viveros is the most dangerous player on the pitch with 17 season goals
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Cruzeiro concedes only 1.0 goals per game at home, whereas Athletico PR concedes 1.67 on the road
Risks
- Missing playmaker: Athletico PR is without the suspended Gastón Benavídez, losing 26% of their seasonal assists
- Defensive risk for the visitors: Athletico PR concedes 1.67 goals on the road compared to their overall average of 1.09
- Tactical balance: Cruzeiro recently averaged 5.0 shots on target with balanced possession
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro44%
Draw32%
Athletico PR24%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw76%
Athletico PR or draw56%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
2:1
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 27 G. Rojas
- 29 L. Romero
- 7 M. de Souza
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
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