Match report →
Corinthians – Chapecoense1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
1.27
Total xG
2.04
Chapecoense
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Raniele not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Corinthians recently controlled possession averaging 57% of the ball
- Chapecoense averaged 4.4 shots on target in their recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 47%
Risks
- Chapecoense concede an average of 2.75 goals per away match
- Corinthians' goal production has stalled recently with an average of 1.0 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians47%
Draw32%
Chapecoense21%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw79%
Chapecoense or draw53%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
0:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
Corinthians
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 2 M. França Silva
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 10 M. Depay
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 5 H. Rodrigues da Fonseca
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 12 Fernando
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 31 M. Garcez
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 77 J. Lingard
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 40 F. Longo Fernandes da Silva
- 55 I. Machado
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 6 G. Piola Minozzo
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 77 D. Borrero Caicedo
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