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Serie A

Corinthians - Chapecoense

09/06/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Corinthians
1.3
Total xG
2.0
Chapecoense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
CORCHA

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.36
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Raniele not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Chapecoense

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap)
-0.08
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)

  • 2
    Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

32%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Corinthians recently controlled possession averaging 57% of the ball
  • Chapecoense averaged 4.4 shots on target in their recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense concede an average of 2.75 goals per away match
  • Corinthians' goal production has stalled recently with an average of 1.0 goals per game
Overview

Corinthians host Chapecoense in Serie A

Match on September 6, 2026, 10:30 PM at Arena Corinthians

Corinthians are in 11th place with 32 points

Chapecoense occupy 20th place with 14 points

The hosts are clear favorites in this matchup

Form

Corinthians display a form of DWLLL with three consecutive losses at the end

The home side secured one win, one draw, and three losses in their recent run

Chapecoense arrive with a form of DLDWL

The away team recorded one win, two draws, and two losses lately

The advancedStats show a positive trend for Chapecoense despite their lower table position

Statistics

Corinthians score an average of 1.04 goals and concede 1.00 goals per game

In home matches, Corinthians average 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded

Chapecoense average 1.04 goals scored but concede 2.04 goals per match

The visitors show defensive vulnerabilities away from home with 2.75 goals conceded per game on average

At Corinthians' home venue, matches have recently averaged 1.60 total goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

This single encounter ended in a draw

The last matchup took place on March 20, 2026

The match concluded with a scoreless 0:0 draw

Key Players

Rodrigo Garro is a key midfielder for Corinthians with 3 goals and 6 assists in 23 appearances

Matheuzinho stabilizes the hosts' defense with a seasonal rating of 6.99 and a rising form trend

Kaio CĂ©sar contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 13 appearances for Corinthians

Giovanni Augusto directs Chapecoense's midfield with 1 goal and 5 assists in 17 games

Marcinho is an important element in the visitors' attack with 3 goals in 23 appearances

Camilo has already featured in 20 games in the midfield for the away side this season

Goalkeepers

KauĂȘ guards the goal for Corinthians and has made 3 seasonal appearances so far

Corinthians recorded 10 clean sheets overall in the league this season

Anderson is the goalkeeper for the visitors with 10 appearances this term

Chapecoense have managed only 2 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

Corinthians benefit from home advantage at Arena Corinthians with 6 clean sheets at home

Matches at the hosts' venue have seen an average of only 1.60 total goals

The grass pitch of Arena Corinthians provides familiar playing conditions for both squads

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