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Serie A

Internacional - Santos

09/06/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Santos
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INTSAN

Internacional

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.09
Alexandro Bernabei not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Santos

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Neymar  not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Internacional: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 2
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Internacional: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Santos averaged 5.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Mathematical analysis estimates the home win probability at 44%
  • Santos' offensive threat is reduced as Neymar and Á. Barreal are missing
Risk Factors
  • Santos concede an average of 1.73 goals in away matches
  • Internacional struggle to score at home averaging only 1.08 goals per game
  • Internacional play very counter-oriented with only 40% average possession recently
Overview

Internacional (18th place, 25 points) host Santos (14th place, 29 points) at Estadio Beira-Rio

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 9:00 PM

Crucial match in the lower half of the table

Form

Internacional struggling with form (DDDDL)

Home side with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss recently

Santos is more stable with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (DLWDW)

The visitors coming off a 1-0 win against Corinthians

Statistics

Internacional average 1.04 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per game

Santos average 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match

Internacional kept 6 clean sheets this season

Santos also kept 6 clean sheets overall

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in total

Internacional leading with 2 wins to 0 wins for Santos and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 2-1 win for the home side on March 19, 2026

Key Players

Alan Patrick contributes 4 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.23

Johan Carbonero is the top scorer for the home team with 6 goals

Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 8 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Matheus Cunha plays in goal for Internacional with 6 clean sheets this season

Gabriel BrazĂŁo is in goal for Santos with 6 clean sheets overall

Influences

The average at Estadio Beira-Rio is 2.4 goals per game

Internacional score an average of 1.08 goals per home match

Santos concede an average of 1.73 goals per away game

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