Match report →
Internacional – Santos2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Internacional
1.39
Total xG
2.37
Santos
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Internacional | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Alexandro Bernabei not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Neymar not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Santos averaged 5.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Mathematical analysis estimates the home win probability at 44%
- Santos' offensive threat is reduced as Neymar and Á. Barreal are missing
Risks
- Santos concede an average of 1.73 goals in away matches
- Internacional struggle to score at home averaging only 1.08 goals per game
- Internacional play very counter-oriented with only 40% average possession recently
All probabilities
Result
Internacional45%
Draw30%
Santos25%
Double chance
Internacional or draw75%
Santos or draw56%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Internacional: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Internacional 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 25 G. Mercado
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 19 A. Sanabria Ayala
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 17 G. Caballero
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 5 R. Villagra
- 8 B. Corsini
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
- 51 J. Gonçalves
- 30 M. Terceros
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 1 D. da Silva
- 16 T. da Silva
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 6 Arthur
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 81 S. e Silva
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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