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Serie A

São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro

09/05/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Atlético Mineiro
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SPAM

São Paulo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Jonathan Calleri  on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Atlético Mineiro

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.09
Alan Minda on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Atlético Mineiro enters the match unbeaten in 5 games (WDWDW) while São Paulo won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DLDLW)
  • Offensive boost: Atlético Mineiro is currently scoring more frequently (2.3 recent goals average) than their season average of 1.4 goals
  • Tactical parallel: Both teams averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Absence of starting goalkeeper E. Marques Pires weakens the defense of Atlético Mineiro
  • Jonathan Calleri (7 goals, 1 assist) is missing from the squad for São Paulo
  • São Paulo's goal scoring has slowed down recently to an average of 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview

São Paulo (11th place, 30 points) host Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 36 points)

Match at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo on September 5, 2026, 10:30 PM

Mathematical model predicts home win probability at 40%

Form

São Paulo form curve is DLDLW with 1 win in their last 5 matches

Atlético Mineiro is unbeaten in 5 matches with form WDWDW (3 wins, 2 draws)

Both teams recorded a home win in their most recent fixture

Statistics

São Paulo average 1.21 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game

In home matches their defense is stable with only 0.67 goals conceded per game

Atlético Mineiro score 1.30 goals and concede 1.40 goals on average away from home

São Paulo's overall season stats show 10 over 2.5 goals matches

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent seasons

Atlético Mineiro lead the record with 2 wins compared to 1 win for São Paulo

The last encounter on March 18, 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for Atlético Mineiro

Key Players

Luciano scores 7 goals and provides 2 assists with a rating of 7.06

Marcos Antônio contributes 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 7.04

Tomás Cuello shines with 4 goals and an average rating of 7.09

Reinier has 3 goals and 2 assists during this campaign

Goalkeepers

Rafael is in goal for São Paulo and played 24 matches with a rating of 6.74

São Paulo record 4 clean sheets this season

Gabriel Delfim represents Atlético Mineiro with only 1 appearance and a rating of 6.75

Atlético Mineiro kept 6 clean sheets overall during this campaign

Influences

São Paulo benefit from home advantage at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

The stadium history shows an average of 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 home games recorded in the dataset (100% BTTS rate)

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