Match report →
São Paulo – Atlético Mineiro2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.32
Total xG
2.41
Atlético Mineiro
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Jonathan Calleri on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Alan Minda on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Atlético Mineiro enters the match unbeaten in 5 games (WDWDW) while São Paulo won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DLDLW)
- Offensive boost: Atlético Mineiro is currently scoring more frequently (2.3 recent goals average) than their season average of 1.4 goals
- Tactical parallel: Both teams averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Absence of starting goalkeeper E. Marques Pires weakens the defense of Atlético Mineiro
- Jonathan Calleri (7 goals, 1 assist) is missing from the squad for São Paulo
- São Paulo's goal scoring has slowed down recently to an average of 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo40%
Draw31%
Atlético Mineiro29%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw71%
Atlético Mineiro or draw60%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Atlético Mineiro 3-4-2-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 28 T. Cuello
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 19 R. Carvalho
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 2 R. Tolói
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 7 F. Rodrigues Santos
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 46 P. Cobra Rodrigues
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
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