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Fluminense – Vasco da Gama1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fluminense
1.20
Total xG
2.12
Vasco da Gama
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fluminense | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Cuiabano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form trend: Fluminense is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)
- Defensive strength: Fluminense concedes an average of only 0.93 goals per home game
- Away weakness: Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.1 goals in away matches
Risks
- Vasco da Gama concedes a high average of 2.1 goals per away match
- Cuiabano is not selected for Vasco da Gama (2 goals, 3 assists)
- Fluminense conceded an average of 1.75 goals over their recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Fluminense41%
Draw33%
Vasco da Gama26%
Double chance
Fluminense or draw74%
Vasco da Gama or draw59%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')
- Kevin Serna: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · Vasco da Gama 4-3-3
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 16 G. Santana
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 5 S. Sosa
- 11 A. Gomez
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 9 F. Colidio
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
Substitutes
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 19 R. Castillo
- 32 L. Acosta
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 22 J. Freytes
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 77 C. Spinelli
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 82 R. Avellar da Silva Fortes
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
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