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Serie A

Fluminense - Vasco da Gama

09/06/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Vasco da Gama
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
FLUVDG

Fluminense

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Full strength squad available

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.56
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Cuiabano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')

  • 3
    Kevin Serna: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Fluminense: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Fluminense: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Fluminense is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)
  • Defensive strength: Fluminense concedes an average of only 0.93 goals per home game
  • Away weakness: Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.1 goals in away matches
Risk Factors
  • Vasco da Gama concedes a high average of 2.1 goals per away match
  • Cuiabano is not selected for Vasco da Gama (2 goals, 3 assists)
  • Fluminense conceded an average of 1.75 goals over their recent matches
Overview

Fluminense face Vasco da Gama at the Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Serie A matchday 26 encounter on September 6, 2026, 2:00 AM

4th-placed Fluminense (42 points) look to maintain their top-four spot

16th-placed Vasco da Gama (25 points) are fighting to pull away from the relegation zone

Form

Fluminense are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws

Their last match ended in a high-scoring 3:3 draw against Athletico PR

W/D/L form of Fluminense: DDWWD

Vasco da Gama recently ended a winless run with a 3:1 home victory against Cruzeiro

W/D/L form of Vasco da Gama: DDLLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fluminense average 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per game

At home, Fluminense are very stable, conceding only 0.93 goals per match

Vasco da Gama concede a high average of 2.1 goals per away match

Vasco da Gama scored 27 goals in 24 matches this season

Head-to-Head

Vasco da Gama won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters, while Fluminense won 2

The last duel on March 19, 2026, ended in a 3:2 away victory for Vasco da Gama

No draws were recorded in their last 5 matchups

Key Players

Hulk is in strong form with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances for Fluminense

AgustĂ­n Canobbio contributed 5 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances this season

Andrés Gómez is a key attacker for Vasco da Gama with 4 goals this season

Not selected: Cuiabano (2 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

FĂĄbio has played 25 games for Fluminense with an average rating of 6.89

LĂ©o Jardim has played 24 games for Vasco da Gama with a 6.67 rating

Fluminense kept 4 clean sheets this season, while Vasco da Gama kept 2

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Venue history averages 3.0 goals per game from recent matches

The model predicts a 41% home win probability

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