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Serie A

Chapecoense - Internacional

09/12/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Internacional
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CHAINT

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.14
Giovanni Augusto on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Internacional

Rising form (1.7 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Matheus Bahia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Offensive improvement: Chapecoense currently score more frequently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average (1.1)
  • Counter-attacking style: Both teams recently averaged under 43% possession in their last five games
  • Weakened away defense: Internacional will miss two suspended defensive players in B. Aguirre and Matheus Bahia
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable home defense: Chapecoense concede an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
  • Loss of attacking threat: Chapecoense's key player Giovanni Augusto (1 goal, 5 assists) is not nominated
  • Away struggles: Internacional concede an average of 1.64 goals in away matches
Overview

Chapecoense host Internacional in Serie A

Match on September 12, 2026, 8:00 PM at Arena Condá

Bottom-of-the-table clash between Chapecoense (20th place, 17 points) and Internacional (18th place, 25 points)

The model predicts a tight encounter with 1.24 expected home goals and 1.31 expected away goals

The mathematical probability for an away win is 37%, while a home win is at 33%

Form

Form Chapecoense: LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Chapecoense recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

In their last match, the home side celebrated a 2-1 win against Corinthians

Form Internacional: DDDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors registered 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Their last match ended in a 2-3 defeat against Santos

Statistics

Chapecoense concede an average of 2.00 goals per game this season

At home, the host scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 1.69 goals

Internacional score an average of 1.09 goals and concede 1.64 goals in away matches

Both teams scored in 16 of Chapecoense's 25 matches this season

Head-to-Head

There is only 1 head-to-head match recorded

This match on March 22, 2026, was won by Chapecoense away with a score of 2-0

Internacional is still looking for their first point against this opponent

Key Players

Marcinho scored 5 goals in 24 season appearances and shows rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games

Bruno Pacheco contributed 1 goal and 3 assists this season

Johan Carbonero is Internacional's top attacker with 6 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Anderson played 11 matches for Chapecoense with an average rating of 7.02

Matheus Cunha made 6 appearances for Internacional with an average rating of 6.62

Internacional kept 6 clean sheets this season, while Chapecoense recorded 2

Influences

The match will take place on natural grass at Arena Condá

Arena Condá matches averaged 3.8 total goals recently

80% of those matches ended with over 2.5 goals

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