Match report →
Chapecoense – Internacional1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chapecoense
1.24
Total xG
2.55
Internacional
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chapecoense | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.7 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Giovanni Augusto on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Matheus Bahia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive improvement: Chapecoense currently score more frequently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average (1.1)
- Counter-attacking style: Both teams recently averaged under 43% possession in their last five games
- Weakened away defense: Internacional will miss two suspended defensive players in B. Aguirre and Matheus Bahia
Risks
- Vulnerable home defense: Chapecoense concede an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
- Loss of attacking threat: Chapecoense's key player Giovanni Augusto (1 goal, 5 assists) is not nominated
- Away struggles: Internacional concede an average of 1.64 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
Chapecoense33%
Draw30%
Internacional37%
Double chance
Chapecoense or draw63%
Internacional or draw67%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1 · Internacional 4-1-4-1
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 31 M. Garcez
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 25 G. Mercado
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 8 B. Corsini
- 5 R. Villagra
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 10 A. Lourenço
Substitutes
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 6 G. Piola Minozzo
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 12 Fernando
- 77 D. Borrero Caicedo
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 19 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 52 G. Vinicius
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