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Serie A

Palmeiras - São Paulo

09/12/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Palmeiras
1.2
Total xG
2.1
São Paulo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PALSP

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Mauricio on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Marlon Freitas not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

São Paulo

Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.02
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Luciano not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan Calleri  on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Artur on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marcos Antônio on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Lucas Ramon on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 38% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

32%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Extreme squad depletion for São Paulo: only 38% of the seasonal goal threat is active, with top scorers Luciano (8 goals) and Jonathan Calleri (7 goals) missing from the lineup
  • Palmeiras averaged 4.6 shots on target per game with 55.6% possession in recent matches
  • Historical dominance for the home side with 4 wins out of the last 5 direct duels against São Paulo
Risk Factors
  • São Paulo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game this season
  • A low-scoring match is likely: the prediction model calculates only a 36% probability for Over 2.5 goals
  • Limited data availability on injured or suspended players for Palmeiras in the provided dataset
Overview

Palmeiras (2nd place, 53 points) host local rivals São Paulo (10th place, 33 points) at the Allianz Parque

Serie A clash on September 12, 2026, 9:30 PM

The home side fights for crucial points in the title race

Form

Palmeiras has a form curve of DLWDD with two consecutive draws at the end

The home team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

São Paulo shows a form of LDLWW with two wins in a row

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.73 goals per game and concedes 0.81 goals

At home, Palmeiras concedes only 0.75 goals per game

São Paulo averages 1.24 goals scored per game but concedes 2.0 goals away from home

São Paulo's defense shows major struggles in away matches

Head-to-Head

Palmeiras dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins in the last 5 matches

São Paulo failed to win any of those games, recording 1 draw

The last match on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Palmeiras

Key Players

Andreas Pereira has contributed 11 assists in 25 appearances in midfield

José Manuel López stands out in attack with 8 goals and rising form

Jhon Arias supports the offense with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Carlos Miguel has played 25 games for Palmeiras, keeping 10 clean sheets

Carlos Coronel has no documented appearances for São Paulo this season

Palmeiras holds a statistical advantage in goal stability

Influences

Palmeiras' home advantage is strong with only 9 goals conceded in 12 home matches

The venue history averages 2.2 goals per match

The match will be played on grass

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