Match report →
Palmeiras – São Paulo2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.25
Total xG
2.13
São Paulo
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Mauricio on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Allan not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marlon Freitas not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Luciano not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Calleri on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Artur on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Antônio on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Ramon on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 38% available) |
Key factors
- Extreme squad depletion for São Paulo: only 38% of the seasonal goal threat is active, with top scorers Luciano (8 goals) and Jonathan Calleri (7 goals) missing from the lineup
- Palmeiras averaged 4.6 shots on target per game with 55.6% possession in recent matches
- Historical dominance for the home side with 4 wins out of the last 5 direct duels against São Paulo
Risks
- São Paulo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game this season
- A low-scoring match is likely: the prediction model calculates only a 36% probability for Over 2.5 goals
- Limited data availability on injured or suspended players for Palmeiras in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras43%
Draw32%
São Paulo25%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw75%
São Paulo or draw57%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · São Paulo 3-4-2-1
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 4 A. Giay
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 42 J. López
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
São Paulo
- 31 C. Coronel
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 2 R. Tolói
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
Substitutes
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 29 M. C. Bilong
- 21 B. Oliveira Bertinato
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 53 I. da Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →