Match report →
Bahia – Remo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.50
Total xG
2.22
Remo
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Erick not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Taliari on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcelinho not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marllon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Bahia is undefeated in 5 matches (DDWWW), while Remo remains winless in 5 games (DDLLL)
- Depleted squad for Remo: The visitors must cope with major absences, leaving them with just 73% of their usual starting strength
- Offensive surge: Bahia is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals recently) compared to their season average (1.7 goals)
Risks
- Remo's defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.36 goals per away match
- Tactical limitations for the visitors: Remo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Bahia54%
Draw29%
Remo16%
Double chance
Bahia or draw84%
Remo or draw46%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
1:1
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Remo: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Bahia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Bahia: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Bahia 4-3-3 · Remo 3-4-3
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 14 L. Picco
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 7 J. Souza Silva
Substitutes
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 43 L. Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 28 J. da Silva
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
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