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Serie A

Bahia - Remo

09/14/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Remo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BAHREM

Bahia

Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.32
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap)
+0.10
Erick not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)

Remo

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.49
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap)
-0.12
Gabriel Taliari on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Marcelinho not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marllon  on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 2
    Bahia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Bahia: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

  • 4
    Bahia: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

29%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Bahia is undefeated in 5 matches (DDWWW), while Remo remains winless in 5 games (DDLLL)
  • Depleted squad for Remo: The visitors must cope with major absences, leaving them with just 73% of their usual starting strength
  • Offensive surge: Bahia is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals recently) compared to their season average (1.7 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Remo's defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.36 goals per away match
  • Tactical limitations for the visitors: Remo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent games
Overview

Bahia (5th place, 43 points) host Remo (19th place, 23 points) at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on September 15, 2026, 1:00 AM

The home side aims to maintain their top positions while the visitors desperately need points to escape relegation

Form

Bahia comes into this fixture in strong shape with a DDWWW form trend

The hosts have won their last three consecutive matches

Remo has been struggling, remaining winless in five games with a DDLLL record

The visitors travel after suffering three consecutive defeats

Statistics

Bahia averages 1.54 goals scored and only 1.00 conceded in their home fixtures

Remo struggles heavily on the road, conceding an average of 2.36 goals per away game

The visitors have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season

Bahia scored in 17 of their 26 matches, while Remo failed to score in 9 fixtures

Head-to-Head

Only one head-to-head match is recorded in the current database

Bahia won that previous away encounter 4-1 on March 22, 2026

The brief history favors the home side on this occasion

Key Players

Alejo Veliz is in top form, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 appearances

Erick Pulga has also contributed 2 goals and 1 assist over the last 5 games

Rodrigo Nestor controls the midfield, boasting a highly impressive recent rating of 7.41

Jajá leads Remo with 7 goals this season, finding the net twice in recent matches

Yago Pikachu registered 3 goals and 1 assist during this campaign

Zé Ricardo holds the visitors' midfield together with a season rating of 6.78

Goalkeepers

Ronaldo is the starting goalkeeper for Bahia, securing a solid season rating of 7.16

He has already recorded 8 clean sheets during this league campaign

Marcelo Rangel guards the goal for Remo with an average rating of 7.01

He has managed only 3 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia benefits from their strong home defense, conceding only 1.00 goals per game on average

Previous matches at this venue produced an average of 2.4 goals

Both teams scored in 60% of matches historically played at this stadium

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