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Coritiba – Athletico PR3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.41
Total xG
2.57
Athletico PR
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Leozinho on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking threat: Athletico PR averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Dangerous striker: Kevin Viveros scored 5 goals in his last 5 games
- Goal-scoring trend: Coritiba averaged 1.8 goals per match in recent games
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: Athletico PR concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away match
- Low offensive volume: Coritiba averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited historical data with only one head-to-head match in the database
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba41%
Draw30%
Athletico PR29%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw71%
Athletico PR or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Athletico PR: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Coritiba: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 25 R. Cândido Coelho
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 28 F. da Silva
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 66 R. Silva Nascimento
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
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