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Serie A

Coritiba - Athletico PR

09/12/2026, 12:00 AM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Athletico PR
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CORAP

Coritiba

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.13
Full strength squad available

Athletico PR

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Leozinho on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Athletico PR: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Attacking threat: Athletico PR averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Dangerous striker: Kevin Viveros scored 5 goals in his last 5 games
  • Goal-scoring trend: Coritiba averaged 1.8 goals per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: Athletico PR concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away match
  • Low offensive volume: Coritiba averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited historical data with only one head-to-head match in the database
Overview

Coritiba hosts Athletico PR

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 2:00 AM

Seventh place meets third place in the standings

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 41%

Form

Coritiba shows a form of WDWWL with 3 wins and 1 draw

Last match ended in defeat after three consecutive wins

Athletico PR enters with a WDWDL form

Coritiba currently scores more frequently at 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.4

Athletico PR is also scoring more frequently at 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.6

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Coritiba scores 1.31 goals and concedes 1.35 goals on average

Athletico PR averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded

Coritiba's home matches average 2.8 total goals

The visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Only one direct encounter is recorded in the dataset

Athletico PR won that away match 2-0

Due to sparse historical data current season performance takes priority

Key Players

Pedro Rocha

Breno Lopes

Kevin Viveros

Pedro Rocha with 8 goals this season and rising form

Breno Lopes has 8 goals and 2 assists

Kevin Viveros is the top attacker for the visitors with 17 season goals

Not nominated: Leozinho (4 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Pedro Morisco guards Coritiba's goal with a 6.98 average rating

Mycael stands in goal for the visitors with a 6.68 average rating

Coritiba has 6 clean sheets while Athletico PR has 8 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for Coritiba at EstĂĄdio Major AntĂ´nio Couto Pereira

Both teams scored in 80% of recent home matches at this venue

The visitors show higher defensive vulnerability in away games than at home

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