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Serie A

Grêmio - Vasco da Gama

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.0
Total xG
2.5
Vasco da Gama
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

10%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
GRÊVDG

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Cristian Pavón not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Gustavo Martins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Marlon  not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')

  • 4
    Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

30%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense vs weak away defense: Grêmio concedes only 0.74 goals on average at home, while Vasco allows 2.20 goals per away match
  • Squad concerns for Grêmio: Key players such as Cristian Pavón (2G/4A) and Gustavo Martins (2G/2A) are missing from the lineup
  • Statistical model advantage: The model calculates a 74% probability for Vasco da Gama to avoid defeat
Risk Factors
  • Defensive instability for Vasco da Gama: An average of 2.20 goals conceded per away game burdens the visitors
  • Struggling Grêmio offense: Recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game and a goal rate of 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.2
Overview

Grêmio (15th place, 28 points) hosts Vasco da Gama (17th place, 25 points) at the Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 7:00 PM

Crucial bottom-of-the-table clash for survival

Form

Grêmio form: WLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches

Vasco da Gama form: DLLWL

1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Statistics

Grêmio scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match

Vasco da Gama averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded

Grêmio is defensively stable at home with only 0.74 goals conceded on average

Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record with 5 head-to-head matches

2 wins for each team and 1 draw

Goal difference of 6:5 in favor of Grêmio

Last encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Vasco da Gama

Key Players

Carlos Vinícius is Grêmio's top forward with 10 goals and a 6.91 average rating

Weverton stabilizes the goal with an average rating of 6.96

Tchê Tchê contributes 2 goals in midfield for Vasco da Gama

Goalkeepers

Weverton has kept 5 clean sheets this season for Grêmio

Léo Jardim has kept 2 clean sheets so far for Vasco da Gama

Influences

Home advantage for Grêmio at their stadium

The Arena do Grêmio sees high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this venue

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