Match report →
Grêmio – Vasco da Gama1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.05
Total xG
2.49
Vasco da Gama
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Cristian Pavón not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Martins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marlon not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense vs weak away defense: Grêmio concedes only 0.74 goals on average at home, while Vasco allows 2.20 goals per away match
- Squad concerns for Grêmio: Key players such as Cristian Pavón (2G/4A) and Gustavo Martins (2G/2A) are missing from the lineup
- Statistical model advantage: The model calculates a 74% probability for Vasco da Gama to avoid defeat
Risks
- Defensive instability for Vasco da Gama: An average of 2.20 goals conceded per away game burdens the visitors
- Struggling Grêmio offense: Recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game and a goal rate of 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio26%
Draw30%
Vasco da Gama44%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw56%
Vasco da Gama or draw74%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
10%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')
- Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-1-4-1 · Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 8 E. Noriega
- 11 Tetê
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 5 S. Sosa
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 11 A. Gomez
- 9 F. Colidio
Substitutes
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 22 A. Lescano
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →