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Atlético Mineiro – Fluminense3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.22
Total xG
2.15
Fluminense
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Alan Minda on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hulk not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ignácio not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Renê on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Martinelli on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Guga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yeferson Soteldo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Fluminense averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Form gap: Fluminense is unbeaten in their last 5 games while Atlético Mineiro lost their last game
- Offensive trend: Both teams currently score more frequently than their season average according to advancedStats
Risks
- Away defense: Fluminense concedes 1.8 goals per away match on average
- Squad depth: Atlético Mineiro is missing key squad members like Alan Minda and Renan Lodi
- Low expected goals: The model predicts a close match with 1.22 to 0.93 expected goals
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro41%
Draw33%
Fluminense27%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw74%
Fluminense or draw59%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Kevin Serna: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-4-2
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 7 F. Rodrigues Santos
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 28 T. Cuello
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 22 J. Freytes
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 16 G. Santana
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 19 R. Castillo
- 32 L. Acosta
Substitutes
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
- 41 R. Sales
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