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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Fluminense
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
AMFLU

Atlético Mineiro

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Alan Minda on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ruan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Fluminense

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.36
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Hulk  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Ignácio not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Renê on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Martinelli on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Guga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Yeferson Soteldo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Kevin Serna: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Fluminense: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Fluminense averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Form gap: Fluminense is unbeaten in their last 5 games while Atlético Mineiro lost their last game
  • Offensive trend: Both teams currently score more frequently than their season average according to advancedStats
Risk Factors
  • Away defense: Fluminense concedes 1.8 goals per away match on average
  • Squad depth: Atlético Mineiro is missing key squad members like Alan Minda and Renan Lodi
  • Low expected goals: The model predicts a close match with 1.22 to 0.93 expected goals
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 36 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 45 points) at the Arena MRV

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 7:00 PM

Crucial clash for the top positions in the table

Form

Atlético Mineiro form: DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently suffered a 0-2 defeat against São Paulo

Fluminense is unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of DWWDW

The visitors won their last match 1-0 against Vasco da Gama

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match

Fluminense averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded overall

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.27 goals per home match

Fluminense concedes an average of 1.80 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches

Fluminense dominates the recent history with 3 wins to Atlético Mineiro's 1 win and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 1-0 win for Fluminense on March 21, 2026

Key Players

Tomás Cuello (4 goals, 1 assist, 7.04 rating) and Reinier (3 goals, 2 assists, 6.94 rating) lead the hosts

Bernard is also key with 2 goals and 3 assists

For Fluminense, Agustín Canobbio (5 goals, 3 assists, 7.04 rating) and Luciano Acosta (4 goals, 4 assists, 7.16 rating) stand out

Jefferson Savarino contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Delfim has 2 appearances for the hosts with an average rating of 6.54

Fábio is the established number 1 for Fluminense with 26 appearances and a 6.91 rating

Influences

Home advantage for Atlético Mineiro at the Arena MRV on grass

Matches at the Arena MRV have averaged 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of these matches

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