Match report →
Santos – Cruzeiro2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Santos
1.56
Total xG
2.58
Cruzeiro
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Gabriel Barbosa not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Neymar not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Christian Oliva on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 76% of goal output missing (only 32% available) | ||
| Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Santos must cope without Gabriel Barbosa, Neymar, Álvaro Barreal, and Christian Oliva, leaving only 33% of their usual goal threat active
- Tactical advantage: Cruzeiro averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Away defensive weakness: Cruzeiro concede an average of 2.1 goals per game in away matches
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Cruzeiro with an average of 2.1 goals conceded per away match
- Santos concede an average of 1.52 goals per game over the season
All probabilities
Result
Santos48%
Draw28%
Cruzeiro23%
Double chance
Santos or draw77%
Cruzeiro or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)
- Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Santos 3-4-2-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 27 G. Rojas
- 29 L. Romero
- 7 M. de Souza
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 25 G. Menino
- 1 D. da Silva
- 16 T. da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 6 Arthur
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 81 S. e Silva
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
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