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Serie A

Santos - Cruzeiro

09/13/2026, 12:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Cruzeiro
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SANCRU

Santos

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Gabriel Barbosa not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Neymar  not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Christian Oliva on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 32% available)

Cruzeiro

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Lucas Villalba on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)

  • 3
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Santos must cope without Gabriel Barbosa, Neymar, Álvaro Barreal, and Christian Oliva, leaving only 33% of their usual goal threat active
  • Tactical advantage: Cruzeiro averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Away defensive weakness: Cruzeiro concede an average of 2.1 goals per game in away matches
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability for Cruzeiro with an average of 2.1 goals conceded per away match
  • Santos concede an average of 1.52 goals per game over the season
Overview

Santos (13th place, 32 points) host Cruzeiro (6th place, 42 points) in Serie A

Match on September 13, 2026, 1:00 AM at the EstĂĄdio Urbano Caldeira

Cruzeiro fight for top positions while Santos look to stabilize

Form

Santos show upward form of LWDWW with two consecutive wins lately

In the last five matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Cruzeiro arrive in strong form of WWWLW with 4 wins in their last five games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santos score an average of 1.48 goals and concede 1.52 goals per game

At home, their average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded

Cruzeiro average 1.46 goals scored per match

However, Cruzeiro concede an average of 2.1 goals in away games

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 48%

Head-to-Head

In the past 3 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2 and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 5:1 in favor of Santos

The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

BenjamĂ­n Rollheiser stands out with a 6.92 average rating and 3 season goals

Willian ArĂŁo and Luan Peres show rising form trends with 1 season goal each

For the visitors, Matheus Pereira shines with a 7.50 rating alongside 7 goals and 4 assists

Kaio Jorge with 7 goals and Lucas Romero with 2 goals and 3 assists shape the attack

Goalkeepers

Gabriel BrazĂŁo is in goal for Santos with a 6.73 rating and 6 clean sheets

For Cruzeiro, OtĂĄvio Costa guards the net with a 6.76 rating and 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the EstĂĄdio Urbano Caldeira

Stadium stats show an average of 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home games

Santos average 1.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded at home

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