Match report →
Botafogo – Bragantino1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.44
Total xG
2.55
Bragantino
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Arthur Cabral not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Rodriguinho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| José Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Botafogo won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
- Model advantage: Mathematical analysis gives Botafogo a 73% probability for the double chance (home win or draw)
- Attacking intent: Botafogo averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Offensive dip: Botafogo's recent goal production dropped to 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.6
- Squad blow: Botafogo is without top scorer Arthur Cabral in the starting lineup
- Form crisis: Botafogo failed to win any of their last 5 matches (DLLLD)
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo43%
Draw29%
Bragantino27%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw73%
Bragantino or draw57%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 3.7 cards per game (41 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
- Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Bragantino: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 33 L. Monzón
- 13 A. Telles
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Substitutes
- 3 A. Largura Chaves
- 29 P. da Silva
- 37 K. Barria
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 32 J. Herrera
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 19 Bruno
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
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