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Serie A

Botafogo - Bragantino

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Bragantino
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BOTBRA

Botafogo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.26
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.24
Arthur Cabral not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Bragantino

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Rodriguinho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
José Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 3.7 cards per game (41 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Botafogo: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Athletico PR: 2 goals (85', 90+2')

  • 3
    Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Bragantino: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Botafogo won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Model advantage: Mathematical analysis gives Botafogo a 73% probability for the double chance (home win or draw)
  • Attacking intent: Botafogo averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Offensive dip: Botafogo's recent goal production dropped to 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Squad blow: Botafogo is without top scorer Arthur Cabral in the starting lineup
  • Form crisis: Botafogo failed to win any of their last 5 matches (DLLLD)
Overview

Botafogo (14th place, 31 points) host Bragantino (9th place, 35 points) at Estádio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 11:30 PM

Both teams aim to climb higher in the league standings

Form

Botafogo in poor form: DLLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

No wins in their last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses

Bragantino also shows a negative form trend of LDWLL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Statistics

Botafogo scores an average of 1.48 goals and concedes 1.60 per match this season

At home, their conceded goals average drops to 1.21 per game

Bragantino scores an average of 1.20 goals and concedes 1.40 in away matches

The visitors display a more stable defense with 28 goals conceded in 25 games overall

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent years

Botafogo dominated with 4 wins, while Bragantino won only once

The overall goal difference stands at 9:4 in favor of the hosts

The last matchup ended in a 2:1 victory for Botafogo

Key Players

Danilo has scored 7 goals in midfield this season with a 7.19 rating

Defender Alex Telles contributes 3 goals and 4 assists

Nahuel Ferraresi stabilizes the defense with a rating of 6.97

For the visitors, Lucas Barbosa stands out with 5 goals and a 7.11 rating

Isidro Pitta contributes 5 goals and 2 assists in attack

Juninho Capixaba impresses in defense with 3 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Batista played 3 matches for Botafogo with a 6.87 rating

Tiago Volpi was in goal for 18 games for Bragantino

The visitors have kept 8 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estádio Nilton Santos

The stadium averages 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the recent matches there

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