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Serie A

Flamengo - Corinthians

09/13/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.3
Total xG
1.9
Corinthians
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

0:0

16%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FLACOR

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.70
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Jorge Carrascal on the bench (5 goals, 6 assists)
Jorginho on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
LĂ©o Pereira not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.66
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Rodrigo Garro on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Matheus Bidu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Matheuzinho on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Breno Bidon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Kaio CĂ©sar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Gustavo Henrique not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 23% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Samuel Lino: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

32%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Corinthians: only 24% of the usual starting line-up goal threat is active with key players like Rodrigo Garro and Matheus Bidu missing
  • Clear difference in form with Flamengo winning four of their last five matches while Corinthians suffered four consecutive defeats recently
  • Flamengo's offensive home strength averaging 2.0 goals per game meets Corinthians' weak away form
Risk Factors
  • Low goal expectations based on the model showing only a 30% probability for over 2.5 goals in this match
  • The last head-to-head encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
Overview

Second-placed Flamengo host thirteenth-placed Corinthians at the Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 5:30 PM

Flamengo with 54 points fight for the top spot while Corinthians with 32 points sit in the midfield

The home team enters as clear favorites

Form

Flamengo show strong form with the form string WLWWW

The hosts recently celebrated three consecutive wins and won four of their last five games

Corinthians are in a crisis with the form string WLLLL

The visitors suffered four consecutive defeats recently and managed only one win in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Flamengo average 1.96 goals scored and only 0.81 goals conceded per game this season

On home turf their average rises to 2.0 goals scored with only 0.67 goals conceded per match

Corinthians record an average of 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home the visitors average 1.00 goal scored and 1.08 goals conceded

The hosts' offensive stats are significantly stronger

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches Flamengo celebrated three wins while Corinthians won once

The goal difference stands at 10-4 in favor of the home team

The last meeting on March 22, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Flamengo dominate the recent historical record in this matchup

Key Players

Pedro has registered 15 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.29 this season

Samuel Lino shines with 9 goals and 7 assists with an average rating of 7.32

Giorgian de Arrascaeta contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this term

On the visitors' side Raniele has scored 2 goals with an average rating of 6.96

Tchoca has 1 goal in just 4 appearances with a rating of 7.22

Dieguinho completes the lineup with 1 goal in 14 matches

Goalkeepers

AgustĂ­n Rossi in Flamengo's goal played 26 league matches and kept 12 clean sheets

Hugo Souza was in goal 22 times for Corinthians and recorded 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches at this venue

Both teams scored in 40% of the past encounters here

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