Match report →
Flamengo – Corinthians2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.29
Total xG
1.93
Corinthians
0.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.66 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Jorge Carrascal on the bench (5 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jorginho on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Léo Pereira not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Garro on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Matheus Bidu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheuzinho on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Breno Bidon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kaio César on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Henrique not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 23% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Corinthians: only 24% of the usual starting line-up goal threat is active with key players like Rodrigo Garro and Matheus Bidu missing
- Clear difference in form with Flamengo winning four of their last five matches while Corinthians suffered four consecutive defeats recently
- Flamengo's offensive home strength averaging 2.0 goals per game meets Corinthians' weak away form
Risks
- Low goal expectations based on the model showing only a 30% probability for over 2.5 goals in this match
- The last head-to-head encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo51%
Draw32%
Corinthians17%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw83%
Corinthians or draw49%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
1:0
17%
0:0
16%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Samuel Lino: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Flamengo: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Corinthians 4-4-2
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 13 D. da Silva
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 11 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 55 I. Machado
- 26 F. Angileri
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 77 J. Lingard
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 30 J. Freitas
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 14 A. Valencia
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 8 R. Garro
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 2 M. França Silva
- 84 Y. Melo
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