Match report →
Mirassol – Vitória2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.14
Total xG
2.00
Vitória
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.55 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| João Victor not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Denilson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheuzinho on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vitória's away weakness with an average of 3.50 goals conceded per away game
- Mirassol's attacking threat remains 95% active despite the absence of João Victor and Denilson
- Vitória recently averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match
Risks
- Mirassol's defensive instability with 1.54 goals conceded per game on average
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol40%
Draw34%
Vitória26%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw74%
Vitória or draw60%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 5-4-1
Mirassol
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 2 E. Brítez
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 79 R. de Souza
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 16 R. Valente Ramos
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 69 W. Oliveira
- 3 D. Silva Dutra
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