🇧🇷

Serie A

Mirassol - Vitória

09/13/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Vitória
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
MIRVIT

Mirassol

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
João Victor not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Denilson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.13
Matheuzinho on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

34%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Vitória's away weakness with an average of 3.50 goals conceded per away game
  • Mirassol's attacking threat remains 95% active despite the absence of João Victor and Denilson
  • Vitória recently averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Mirassol's defensive instability with 1.54 goals conceded per game on average
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Mirassol host Vitória at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 9:00 PM

Mirassol is in 16th place with 28 points fighting relegation

Vitória travels as the 12th-placed team with 32 points

The model predicts a tight match with a 40% home win probability

Form

Mirassol shows the form LDDLW with one win in their last five matches

Their most recent match was a 2-1 away victory against Coritiba

Vitória is on a form of LWLLW with two wins and three losses

They recently secured a 1-0 home victory against Grêmio

Statistics

Mirassol averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded per game

At home Mirassol concedes an average of 1.27 goals

Vitória averages 0.96 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded this season

Away from home Vitória's defense is highly vulnerable conceding 3.50 goals on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between these teams

Vitória won 2 matches with one draw while Mirassol remains winless

The goal difference is 4-1 in favor of Vitória

The last meeting on March 22, 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for Vitória

Key Players

Igor Formiga has 4 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.03

Reinaldo contributes 1 goal and 4 assists with a rating of 6.92

Renê is Vitória's top scorer with 6 goals this season

Not nominated are João Victor and Denilson for Mirassol and Matheuzinho for Vitória

Goalkeepers

Alex Muralha has played twice in goal with an average rating of 6.85

Lucas Arcanjo has made 22 appearances keeping 10 clean sheets with a rating of 7.10

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game with an over 2.5 rate of 0.6

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.