Match report →
Vitória – Cruzeiro1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.26
Total xG
2.61
Cruzeiro
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Lucas Romero not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical offensive trend: Cruzeiro scored more goals recently (averaged 1.8 goals) compared to their season average of 1.5
- Historical dominance: Cruzeiro won three of the last five direct meetings, while Vitória failed to secure any victory
- Balanced probabilities: The mathematical model suggests a tight encounter with a 37% win chance for Cruzeiro and 33% for Vitória
Risks
- Away vulnerability: Cruzeiro concedes a high average of 2.30 goals per match on the road
- Not nominated: Lucas Romero is missing from Cruzeiro's midfield (2 goals and 3 assists this season)
- Home defensive strength: Vitória concedes an extremely low average of 0.53 goals per game on home soil
All probabilities
Result
Vitória33%
Draw30%
Cruzeiro37%
Double chance
Vitória or draw63%
Cruzeiro or draw67%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)
Lineups
Vitória 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 16 R. Valente Ramos
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 2 E. Brítez
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 3 D. Silva Dutra
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 7 M. de Souza
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
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