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Serie A

Vitória - Cruzeiro

09/20/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Cruzeiro
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VITCRU

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Cruzeiro

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Lucas Romero not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Tactical offensive trend: Cruzeiro scored more goals recently (averaged 1.8 goals) compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Historical dominance: Cruzeiro won three of the last five direct meetings, while Vitória failed to secure any victory
  • Balanced probabilities: The mathematical model suggests a tight encounter with a 37% win chance for Cruzeiro and 33% for Vitória
Risk Factors
  • Away vulnerability: Cruzeiro concedes a high average of 2.30 goals per match on the road
  • Not nominated: Lucas Romero is missing from Cruzeiro's midfield (2 goals and 3 assists this season)
  • Home defensive strength: Vitória concedes an extremely low average of 0.53 goals per game on home soil
Overview

Vitória (13th place, 33 points) host Cruzeiro (6th place, 42 points)

Serie A match at Estádio Manoel Barradas on September 20, 2026, 7:00 PM

Mathematical models suggest an evenly balanced matchup with a slight advantage for the visitors

Form

Vitória shows a stable trend with recent form of WLLWD

Cruzeiro displays a positive form trend with WWLWL

The hosts achieved two wins and one draw in their last five matches

The visitors secured three wins over the same period

Statistics

Vitória scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.44 goals per game on average this season

At home their defense is solid, conceding only 0.53 goals per match

Cruzeiro averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game

The visitors concede an average of 2.30 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Cruzeiro dominated the last five direct meetings with three wins and two draws

Vitória failed to secure a single victory during this period

The last head-to-head match ended in a clear 3-0 win for Cruzeiro

The overall goal difference in these meetings stands at 11:4 in favor of Cruzeiro

Key Players

Renê leads the home attack with 8 goals

Erick contributed 3 goals and 5 assists in 25 appearances

Matheuzinho has scored 3 goals so far this season

Matheus Pereira is the key playmaker for the visitors with 8 goals and 4 assists

Kaio Jorge has already scored 7 goals in 20 matches

Keny Arroyo has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo guards Vitória's goal, carrying a season rating of 7.10

Otávio Costa is between the posts for Cruzeiro, averaging 6.84

The home team has kept 10 clean sheets this season

The visiting side secured 5 clean sheets during the campaign

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Estádio Manoel Barradas

The stadium history average stands at 1.8 goals per match

In Vitória's last five home matches, both teams never scored simultaneously

Vitória draws strength mainly from their compact home record with only 9 goals conceded in 17 matches

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