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Serie A

Remo - Santos

09/19/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Remo
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Santos
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
REMSAN

Remo

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.55
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Jajá not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Yago Pikachu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 97% available)

Santos

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Neymar  not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)

  • 2
    Remo with Vitor Bueno starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/6 games, last 27)

  • 3
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

32%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Santos travel with four wins in their last five matches (WDWWW), while Remo are winless in five (DLLLL)
  • Tactical edge: Santos averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Remo's 3.0
  • Model prediction: The mathematical prediction favors Santos with a 38% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Squad depth tested: Key players Neymar (6 goals) and Álvaro Barreal (5 goals) are sidelined with injuries
  • Remo's home defense: At home Remo concede only 1.13 goals on average compared to 2.33 away from home
  • Balanced odds: The model predicts a high draw probability of 32% with 1.03 to 1.20 expected goals
Overview

Remo (19th place, 23 points) host Santos (10th place, 35 points)

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 10:30 PM at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Relegation battle for the hosts against mid-table Santos

Form

Remo show a form of DLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

No wins in the last five matches with four defeats

Santos are in excellent shape with a form of WDWWW

The visitors secured four wins and one draw recently

Statistics

Remo score an average of 1.15 goals and concede 1.67 per match

Remo's home record is balanced with 1.13 goals scored and conceded

Santos average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game

The visitors concede an average of 1.62 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Only one head-to-head match in history so far

Santos won this encounter 2-0 on April 2, 2026

Remo are still waiting for their first goal against this opponent

Key Players

Vitor Bueno (4 goals, 3 assists) and Gabriel Taliari (4 goals) are Remo's key assets

Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 10 goals this season

Not nominated for Remo: Jajá (7 goals) and Yago Pikachu (3 goals)

Not nominated for Santos: Neymar (6 goals) and Álvaro Barreal (5 goals)

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Rangel guards the goal for Remo with a season rating of 7.05

Diógenes plays for Santos with two appearances and a 6.85 rating

Remo kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Santos recorded 6

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Average of 2.6 goals scored in Remo's recent home matches

Santos score an average of 1.46 goals in away games

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