Match report →
Remo – Santos1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.03
Total xG
2.24
Santos
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.55 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Jajá not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yago Pikachu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Neymar not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Barreal not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form disparity: Santos travel with four wins in their last five matches (WDWWW), while Remo are winless in five (DLLLL)
- Tactical edge: Santos averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Remo's 3.0
- Model prediction: The mathematical prediction favors Santos with a 38% win probability
Risks
- Squad depth tested: Key players Neymar (6 goals) and Álvaro Barreal (5 goals) are sidelined with injuries
- Remo's home defense: At home Remo concede only 1.13 goals on average compared to 2.33 away from home
- Balanced odds: The model predicts a high draw probability of 32% with 1.03 to 1.20 expected goals
All probabilities
Result
Remo30%
Draw32%
Santos38%
Double chance
Remo or draw62%
Santos or draw70%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Remo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Remo with Vitor Bueno starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/6 games, last 27)
- Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 28 J. da Silva
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 14 L. Picco
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 6 Arthur
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 25 G. Menino
- 16 T. da Silva
- 18 I. de Souza
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 81 S. e Silva
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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