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Serie A

Grêmio - Palmeiras

09/20/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Grêmio
0.8
Total xG
2.6
Palmeiras
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

0:2

12%

1:2

10%

0:3

7%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
GRÊPAL

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.82
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.26
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Mauricio on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Murilo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

26%

Away Win

58%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

42%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Offensive Power: Palmeiras' strong away attack (1.71 goals) meets an unstable Grêmio defense (1.41 conceded)
  • Form Gap: Grêmio suffered four defeats in five matches, whereas Palmeiras remains highly stable
  • Model Lean: The mathematical model indicates a strong advantage for the visitors with a 58% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Hosts' Home Defense: Grêmio defends tightly at home, conceding only 0.8 goals per match
  • Venue Trend: Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this arena with a high average of 3.2 goals
Overview

Grêmio (17th place, 28 points) hosts Palmeiras (2nd place, 56 points) at the Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM

Crucial points at stake for the hosts in the relegation battle against the title contenders

Form

Grêmio is in weak form with four defeats in their last five matches

Form string: LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Palmeiras looks more stable following a recent win against São Paulo

Form string: LWDDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Palmeiras boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.78 goals per game this season

On the road, the visitors score an average of 1.71 goals per match

Grêmio concedes 1.41 goals on average while scoring 1.11 goals

At home, Grêmio's defense is significantly stronger, conceding only 0.8 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Palmeiras dominates the head-to-head record with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings

The hosts managed 1 win and 1 draw during this period

The last encounter on April 3, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Palmeiras

Key Players

Carlos Vinícius leads Grêmio's attack with 10 league goals

Cristian Pavón has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists so far

Gustavo Martins stabilizes the defense with a season rating of 7.09

Not nominated for Grêmio: Tetê (2 goals, 1 assist)

Andreas Pereira is the main playmaker for Palmeiras with 11 assists

José Manuel López has already registered 8 goals and 4 assists

Vitor Roque contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Not nominated for Palmeiras: Mauricio (7 goals, 1 assist), Murilo (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Weverton played 25 matches for Grêmio with a rating of 6.95

Grêmio kept 5 clean sheets so far this season

Carlos Miguel featured in 26 games for Palmeiras with a rating of 7.01

Palmeiras secured 11 clean sheets in this campaign

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena do Grêmio

The venue history shows an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this stadium

Grêmio benefits from a solid home defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per match

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