Match report →
Grêmio – Palmeiras0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
0.82
Total xG
2.57
Palmeiras
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.82 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mauricio on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Murilo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive Power: Palmeiras' strong away attack (1.71 goals) meets an unstable Grêmio defense (1.41 conceded)
- Form Gap: Grêmio suffered four defeats in five matches, whereas Palmeiras remains highly stable
- Model Lean: The mathematical model indicates a strong advantage for the visitors with a 58% win probability
Risks
- Hosts' Home Defense: Grêmio defends tightly at home, conceding only 0.8 goals per match
- Venue Trend: Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this arena with a high average of 3.2 goals
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio16%
Draw26%
Palmeiras58%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw42%
Palmeiras or draw84%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
12%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 3-4-3 · Palmeiras 4-2-2-2
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 8 E. Noriega
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 7 C. Pavón
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 9 F. Amuzu
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 4 A. Giay
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 42 J. López
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
Substitutes
- 11 Tetê
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 43 L. Guedes de Souza
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
- 19 R. Sosa
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
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