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Serie A

Flamengo - Bragantino

09/20/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Bragantino
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FLABRA

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.71
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.52
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Samuel Lino not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists)
Lucas Paquetá not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Erick Pulgar not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Bragantino

Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Juninho Capixaba not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
José Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Bragantino: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 60% possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
  • Home field strength: The league leaders averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded per home match this season
  • Form advantage: The model calculates a 62% home win probability, backed by four consecutive home wins for Flamengo
Risk Factors
  • Squad absences: Samuel Lino (9 goals, 7 assists), Lucas Paquetá (5 goals), and Erick Pulgar are missing from the squad
  • Away threat: Bragantino has been offensively dangerous in recent matches, averaging 6.0 shots on target per game
Overview

Flamengo (1st place, 57 points) host Bragantino (10th place, 36 points) at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 9:30 PM

League leaders Flamengo enter the match as clear favorites

Form

Flamengo show strong form with four wins in their last five matches

Home team form string: LWWWW

Bragantino managed only one win in their last five games

Away team form string: DWLLD

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Flamengo scored an average of 1.96 goals per game this season

The home team conceded an average of only 0.81 goals per match

Bragantino average 1.23 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game

In home matches, Flamengo average 2.0 goals scored and 0.69 goals conceded

Bragantino concede an average of 1.36 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo secured 3 wins, with 1 draw and 1 win for Bragantino

The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Bragantino on April 3, 2026

Goal difference stands at 8:6 in favor of Flamengo

Key Players

Pedro scored 15 goals and provided 5 assists in 27 matches

Jorge Carrascal recorded 5 goals and 6 assists in 21 games

Giorgian de Arrascaeta contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 20 appearances

Lucas Barbosa scored 5 goals and registered 2 assists in 24 games

Isidro Pitta found the net 5 times and provided 2 assists in 23 appearances

Fernando scored 3 goals and added 1 assist in 13 games

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi guards the goal for Flamengo and kept 12 clean sheets this season

Tiago Volpi plays as goalkeeper for Bragantino and achieved 8 clean sheets

Influences

Flamengo benefits from extreme home strength with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded in their stadium

The match will be played on natural grass at the legendary Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

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