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Flamengo – Bragantino2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.94
Total xG
2.78
Bragantino
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.71 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.52 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Samuel Lino not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Lucas Paquetá not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Erick Pulgar not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Juninho Capixaba not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| José Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 60% possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
- Home field strength: The league leaders averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded per home match this season
- Form advantage: The model calculates a 62% home win probability, backed by four consecutive home wins for Flamengo
Risks
- Squad absences: Samuel Lino (9 goals, 7 assists), Lucas Paquetá (5 goals), and Erick Pulgar are missing from the squad
- Away threat: Bragantino has been offensively dangerous in recent matches, averaging 6.0 shots on target per game
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo62%
Draw24%
Bragantino14%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw86%
Bragantino or draw38%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Bragantino: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Flamengo: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 13 D. da Silva
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 30 J. Freitas
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 14 A. Valencia
- 79 C. Lana de Andrade
- 32 J. Herrera
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 19 Bruno
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
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