Match report →
Corinthians – Fluminense1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
0.97
Total xG
1.73
Fluminense
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Y. Monteiro da Silva not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Ignácio not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yeferson Soteldo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Corinthians lost their last 5 matches in a row (Form: LLLLL), while Fluminense won 3 of their last 5 games
- Tactical edge: Fluminense averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.6 by Corinthians
- Squad strength: Fluminense is missing Ignácio, Guga, and Yeferson Soteldo but still fields 100% of their regular goalscoring power
Risks
- Defensive instability: Fluminense concede an average of 1.91 goals per away game
- Offensive weakness: Corinthians average only 0.8 goals scored per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians38%
Draw37%
Fluminense26%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw74%
Fluminense or draw62%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.553%
Under 1.547%
Over 2.525%
Under 2.575%
Over 3.510%
Under 3.590%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%
Most likely scores
0:0
19%
1:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
12%
2:0
8%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Fluminense: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Palmeiras: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 55 I. Machado
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 10 M. Depay
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 3 T. da Silva
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 16 G. Santana
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Substitutes
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 19 R. Castillo
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 22 J. Freytes
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
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