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Atlético Mineiro – Chapecoense1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Mineiro
1.85
Total xG
2.67
Chapecoense
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.93 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 7, 13 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 20, 13 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Reinier not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis estimates a high 60% probability for a home win
- Chapecoense concedes an average of 2.56 goals per away game
- Atlético Mineiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Missing duel statistics in the last five matches
- Chapecoense travels with a weak away defense conceding 2.56 goals on average
- Absence of key regulars such as V. Gomes Silva (20 season appearances) and R. Tressoldi Netto
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Mineiro60%
Draw25%
Chapecoense15%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw85%
Chapecoense or draw40%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Chapecoense: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Tomás Cuello: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)
- Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 28 T. Cuello
- 7 F. Rodrigues Santos
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 27 A. Minda García
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 31 M. Garcez
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 25 T. Pérez
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 12 Fernando
- 77 D. Borrero Caicedo
- 55 R. Macedo Soares
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