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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Chapecoense

09/19/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Chapecoense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AMCHA

Atlético Mineiro

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.28
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 20, 13 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Reinier not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Renan Lodi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.93
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 7, 13 places gap)
-0.12
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Chapecoense: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Tomás Cuello: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Atlético Mineiro: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)

  • 6
    Chapecoense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

25%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis estimates a high 60% probability for a home win
  • Chapecoense concedes an average of 2.56 goals per away game
  • Atlético Mineiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Missing duel statistics in the last five matches
  • Chapecoense travels with a weak away defense conceding 2.56 goals on average
  • Absence of key regulars such as V. Gomes Silva (20 season appearances) and R. Tressoldi Netto
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (7th place, 39 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 17 points) at the Arena MRV

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 7:00 PM

Clear favorites against the bottom of the table

Form

Atlético Mineiro enters with a form of WDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Three wins and one loss in the last five matches according to stats

Chapecoense travels with a form of DWLWL

Two wins and two losses in the past five games

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.35 goals and concedes 1.19 per match

Chapecoense averages 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded

The visitors concede an average of 2.56 goals per away game

The home team has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Only one head-to-head match in the database

The last meeting ended in a 4-0 scoreline

Advantage for the home team in the historical record

Key Players

Tomás Cuello scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists with a rating of 7.08

Bernard contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season

Alan Minda has 2 goals and 2 assists

Marcinho scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists so far

Giovanni Augusto has recorded 1 goal and 5 assists with a rating of 7.09

Bruno Pacheco contributed 1 goal and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Delfim starts in goal for the home side with 3 appearances this season

Anderson has played 12 matches in goal for Chapecoense this season

The home team achieved 6 clean sheets this season, while the visitors had 2

Influences

Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 0.94 in home games

Chapecoense scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 2.56 in away matches

The last 5 home games at this arena saw an average of 3.2 goals per match

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