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Serie A

Mirassol - Botafogo

09/19/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Botafogo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MIRBOT

Mirassol

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Alesson not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)

Botafogo

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Edenilson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 3.3 cards per game (37 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Botafogo: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Tactical offensive threat: Botafogo averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Mirassol's 4.6
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model favors Mirassol with a 46% home win probability (home win or draw at 75%)
  • Head-to-head edge: Botafogo remains unbeaten in all 3 historical matches against Mirassol
Risk Factors
  • High physical strain: Botafogo enters this challenging away match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Away defensive struggles: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.09 goals per away game this season
  • Missing key assets: Alesson is not nominated for Mirassol (4 assists missing), while Botafogo lacks Edenilson (3 goals, 2 assists)
Overview

Mirassol (15th place, 29 points) host Botafogo (11th place, 35 points) at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 10:00 PM

The home side aims to distance themselves from the relegation zone

Form

Mirassol's current form is DDLWD with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Botafogo enters with a record of LLDDW containing 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Mirassol drew 2-2 with Vitória in their last outing

Botafogo won 3-2 against Grêmio in their previous game

Statistics

Mirassol scored 31 goals this season (avg. 1.15) and conceded 42 (avg. 1.56)

Botafogo scored 41 goals (avg. 1.52) and conceded 43 (avg. 1.59)

At home, Mirassol averages 1.12 goals scored, while Botafogo concedes an average of 2.09 goals away

Both teams scored in 19 of Mirassol's matches this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 3 direct encounters, Mirassol has 0 wins, Botafogo has 1 win, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The total goal difference is 5:6 in favor of Botafogo

Their most recent duel on April 1, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for Botafogo

Key Players

Igor Formiga stands out for Mirassol with 4 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.06 rating

Reinaldo has contributed 5 assists, while Eduardo scored 4 goals so far

For Botafogo, Danilo excels with 9 goals and 2 assists, holding a 7.28 rating

Arthur Cabral has scored 7 goals, and Alex Telles contributes 3 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Walter guards Mirassol's goal with a 6.77 rating and 1 clean sheet

Gabriel Batista starts for Botafogo with a 7.00 rating and 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

In Mirassol's last 5 home games, matches averaged 3.6 goals with both teams scoring in every match

The model predicts 1.48 expected home goals and 1.03 expected away goals

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