Match report →
Mirassol – Botafogo2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.48
Total xG
2.51
Botafogo
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alesson not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Edenilson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical offensive threat: Botafogo averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Mirassol's 4.6
- Model prediction: The mathematical model favors Mirassol with a 46% home win probability (home win or draw at 75%)
- Head-to-head edge: Botafogo remains unbeaten in all 3 historical matches against Mirassol
Risks
- High physical strain: Botafogo enters this challenging away match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away defensive struggles: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.09 goals per away game this season
- Missing key assets: Alesson is not nominated for Mirassol (4 assists missing), while Botafogo lacks Edenilson (3 goals, 2 assists)
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol46%
Draw29%
Botafogo25%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw75%
Botafogo or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 3.3 cards per game (37 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Botafogo: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 4-4-2
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 33 L. Monzón
- 13 A. Telles
- 6 C. Medina
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Substitutes
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
- 3 A. Largura Chaves
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 34 E. Justino
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 22 H. Ziyech
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