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São Paulo – Internacional1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.41
Total xG
2.30
Internacional
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Ramon on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- São Paulo has recently dominated possession, averaging 55.2% ball possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
- Outstanding defensive record for São Paulo at home, conceding only 0.59 goals per match on average
- The mathematical model estimates a 48% probability of a home win and a 78% probability of a home win or draw
Risks
- Offensive dip for São Paulo, scoring only 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.2
- Internacional shows improved efficiency, scoring 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- Weakened squad depth for São Paulo due to several injured and questionable players
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo48%
Draw30%
Internacional22%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw78%
Internacional or draw52%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- São Paulo: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Internacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 14)
Lineups
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 2 R. Tolói
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 9 J. Calleri
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 25 G. Mercado
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 8 B. Corsini
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 10 A. Lourenço
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 49 R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 19 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 24 F. Sirio
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