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Serie A

São Paulo - Internacional

09/20/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Internacional
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SPINT

São Paulo

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Wendell on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Lucas Ramon on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Internacional

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Internacional: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

  • 4
    Internacional: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 5
    Internacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • São Paulo has recently dominated possession, averaging 55.2% ball possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
  • Outstanding defensive record for São Paulo at home, conceding only 0.59 goals per match on average
  • The mathematical model estimates a 48% probability of a home win and a 78% probability of a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Offensive dip for São Paulo, scoring only 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Internacional shows improved efficiency, scoring 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Weakened squad depth for São Paulo due to several injured and questionable players
Overview

São Paulo (12th place, 33 points) hosts Internacional (18th place, 28 points)

Match at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo on September 20, 2026, 2:00 AM

The hosts aim to stabilize in mid-table, while the visitors desperately need points in the relegation zone

Form

São Paulo form: DLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent record shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Internacional form: DDLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

São Paulo averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded per match this season

Their home defense is remarkably strong, conceding only 0.59 goals per game

Internacional averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded overall

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 1.46 goals per match

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent years

São Paulo recorded 2 wins, Internacional secured 1 win, and 2 matches ended in draws

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on April 1, 2026

The goal difference stands at 7-5 in favor of São Paulo

Key Players

Luciano has scored 8 goals and provided 2 assists in 21 appearances this season

Jonathan Calleri has scored 7 goals in 22 matches for the hosts

Artur contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 17 appearances

Johan Carbonero scored 7 goals and registered 4 assists in 26 games for the away side

Alexandro Bernabei recorded 4 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances

Alan Patrick added 4 goals and 1 assist in 22 season matches

Goalkeepers

Rafael guards the goal for São Paulo with 25 appearances so far this season

Anthoni starts in goal for Internacional, having recorded 10 matches

The home team has secured 5 clean sheets during this league campaign

The visiting side has registered 6 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

The home team benefits from an exceptionally strong defense in front of their fans, conceding just 0.59 goals per game

Historically, matches at this venue average 2.4 goals per game

In recent home matches, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 encounters

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