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Vasco da Gama – Coritiba5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.96
Total xG
3.10
Coritiba
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +1.01 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Tchê Tchê not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Breno Lopes not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| JP Chermont not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 55%
- Vasco da Gama averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Coritiba shows a positive trend, scoring more recently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.4)
Risks
- Vulnerable defense of Vasco da Gama with an average of 1.58 goals conceded per season match
- Vasco da Gama managed to keep only 2 clean sheets in 26 games this season
- Coritiba concedes an average of 1.46 goals in their away matches
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama55%
Draw24%
Coritiba20%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw80%
Coritiba or draw45%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vasco da Gama: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 9 total)
- Coritiba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-3-3 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 22 A. Lescano
- 5 S. Sosa
- 188 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 11 A. Gomez
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
- 9 F. Colidio
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 23 T. Coiser
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 28 F. da Silva
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Substitutes
- 55 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 77 C. Spinelli
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 14 F. Bustos
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 33 D. França
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 66 R. Silva Nascimento
- 27 G. Silva Figueiredo
- 37 L. Crepaldi Pimentel
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