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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Coritiba

09/19/2026, 11:30 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Coritiba
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VDGCOR

Vasco da Gama

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+1.01
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
TchĂȘ TchĂȘ not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Coritiba

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Breno Lopes not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)
JP Chermont not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Vasco da Gama: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 9 total)

  • 3
    Coritiba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

24%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 55%
  • Vasco da Gama averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Coritiba shows a positive trend, scoring more recently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.4)
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable defense of Vasco da Gama with an average of 1.58 goals conceded per season match
  • Vasco da Gama managed to keep only 2 clean sheets in 26 games this season
  • Coritiba concedes an average of 1.46 goals in their away matches
Overview

Vasco da Gama host Coritiba at the EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 11:30 PM

Vasco da Gama is currently in 17th place with 28 points facing relegation pressure

Coritiba travels as the 8th-placed team with 38 points

Form

Vasco da Gama form: LLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team has 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent run

Coritiba form: DWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat recently

Statistics

Vasco da Gama averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per match

In home matches, they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded

Coritiba records a season average of 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

The away team shows an average of 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded on the road

Both teams scored in 17 out of 26 matches played by Vasco da Gama this season

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match in the last two years

This direct encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on April 1, 2026

The historic record between both clubs is completely even

Key Players

Thiago Mendes leads Vasco da Gama with an average seasonal rating of 7.21

Facundo Colidio scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances for the home side

Andrés Gómez contributed 4 goals and 2 assists so far this season

Josué shines for Coritiba with a seasonal rating of 7.11 and 11 assists

Pedro Rocha remains a vital threat for the visitors with 8 goals this season

Tiago CĂłser scored an impressive 3 goals in his last 5 matches from defence

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Jardim guards the goal for Vasco da Gama with 2 clean sheets this season

The visitors field Pedro Morisco, who has secured 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

Vasco da Gama counts on their home advantage at the EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

The stadium statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per match on this grass surface

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